Department of Forest Sciences, Faculty of Natural Resources and Earth Sciences, Shahrekord University, Shahrekord, Iran.
Research Institute of Forests and Rangelands, Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organization (AREEO), Tehran, Iran.
Sci Total Environ. 2020 Oct 20;740:140167. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140167. Epub 2020 Jun 12.
Determining the level of ecosystems exposure to multiple environmental hazards or risk factors is of paramount importance for developing, adopting, and planning management strategies to minimize the harmful effects of these hazards. We quantified the level of exposure of mangroves on the northern coasts of the Persian Gulf (PG) and the Gulf of Oman (GO) between 1986 and 2019 to eight environmental hazards, i.e., drought, maximum temperatures, rising sea levels, change of freshwater inflows to coasts, extreme storm surges, significant wave height (SWH), seaward edge retreat in the mangroves, and fishery intensity. Based on expert opinion, fuzzy weights were used to integrate these exposures into a single index (EI) for the region. Experts gave the greatest weight/importance to the risks posed by sea-level rise and seaward retreat of mangroves and the lowest risk to significant wave height and fishery intensity in coastal waters. The overall EI and six of eight individual variables (except fishery intensity and maximum temperatures) pointed to exposure levels of mangroves that increased from the coasts of the PG (EI 0.69) to the GO (EI 6.69). Since these hazards are expected to continue in the future, local/regional management responses should focus on minimizing regional anthropogenic threats and halt conversion of natural areas to agricultural and open areas to maintain freshwater inputs to coastal areas, particularly on the GO. Further, uplands that may serve as future refugia into which mangroves may expand over time as sea levels continue to rise should be protected from development. This was the first study that used an analytic framework to compute a mangrove exposure index to a suite of physical and socio-economic hazards across a region. This framework may provide insights into cost-effective resilience-based design and management of socio-ecologically coupled ecosystems in an era of increasing types and intensities of environmental hazards.
确定生态系统对多种环境危害或风险因素的暴露程度对于制定、采用和规划管理策略至关重要，以最大限度地减少这些危害的有害影响。我们量化了 1986 年至 2019 年期间波斯湾（PG）和阿曼湾（GO）北部沿海地区红树林面临的八种环境危害的暴露程度，包括干旱、最高温度、海平面上升、流入海岸的淡水变化、极端风暴潮、显著波高（SWH）、红树林向海退缩以及渔业强度。基于专家意见，使用模糊权重将这些暴露程度整合到该地区的单个指数（EI）中。专家们对海平面上升和红树林向海退缩所带来的风险给予最大的权重/重视，而对沿海水域的显著波高和渔业强度风险最小。整体 EI 和八项个体变量中的六项（除了渔业强度和最高温度）表明，从 PG 海岸（EI 为 0.69）到 GO（EI 为 6.69），红树林的暴露程度增加。由于预计这些危害将在未来继续存在，因此当地/区域管理对策应侧重于最大限度地减少区域人为威胁，并停止将自然区域转换为农业和开放区域，以维持向沿海地区输入淡水，特别是在 GO。此外，应保护可能作为未来红树林随海平面持续上升而扩展的内陆地区，不受开发的影响。这是第一项使用分析框架计算一系列物理和社会经济危害对红树林暴露程度的研究。在环境危害的类型和强度不断增加的时代，该框架可以为基于成本效益的弹性设计和管理社会生态耦合系统提供见解。
