Nakajima Hisato, Yano Kouya
Department of Medical Insurance Guidance Room, The Jikei University Hospital.
Department of Industrial Engineering and Management, College of Industrial Technology, Nihon University.
Nihon Eiseigaku Zasshi. 2020;75(0). doi: 10.1265/jjh.20001.
We investigated the indicators affecting life expectancy at birth and life expectancy at age 65 by multiple regression analysis and principal component analysis, and examined the factors affecting the longevity.
We set indicators for health status, risk factors, access to care, quality of care and health care resources. Then, we conducted multiple regression analysis with life expectancy at birth and life expectancy at age 65 as the objective variables and 22 indicators as explanatory variables. Principal component analysis was also performed on the 22 indicators.
Men's life expectancy at birth was positively affected by hospital admission ratio and national health insurance costs, and negatively by the rate of requirement of care certification and alcohol consumption. Men's life expectancy at age 65 was positively affected by income-to-medical expenses ratio and hospitalization treatment ratio, and negatively by requiring care certification rate, smoking rate and obesity rate. Women's life expectancy at birth was positively affected by population coverage and hospitalization treatment ratio, and negatively by women's heart disease mortality rate, requiring care certification rate and smoking rate. Women's life expectancy at age 65 was positively affected by late-stage elderly medical costs and the number of doctors, and negatively by requiring care certification rate and air pollution. Principal component 1 indicated "aging high-medical-resource society", principal component 2 indicated "high mortality from heart disease", and principal component 3 indicated the "degree of risk factor".
On the basis of the indicators found to affect life expectancy at birth and life expectancy at age 65, it is necessary to take measures to ensure a long life.
通过多元回归分析和主成分分析，研究影响出生时预期寿命和65岁时预期寿命的指标，并探讨影响长寿的因素。
设定健康状况、危险因素、就医可及性、医疗质量和医疗资源等指标。然后，以出生时预期寿命和65岁时预期寿命为目标变量，22项指标为解释变量进行多元回归分析。对这22项指标也进行了主成分分析。
男性出生时预期寿命受住院率和国民健康保险费用的正向影响，受护理认证需求率和酒精消费量的负向影响。男性65岁时预期寿命受收入与医疗费用比和住院治疗率的正向影响，受护理认证需求率、吸烟率和肥胖率的负向影响。女性出生时预期寿命受人口覆盖率和住院治疗率的正向影响，受女性心脏病死亡率、护理认证需求率和吸烟率的负向影响。女性65岁时预期寿命受晚期老年医疗费用和医生数量的正向影响，受护理认证需求率和空气污染的负向影响。主成分1表示“老龄化高医疗资源社会”，主成分2表示“心脏病高死亡率”，主成分3表示“危险因素程度”。
基于所发现的影响出生时预期寿命和65岁时预期寿命的指标，有必要采取措施以确保长寿。
