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山区高速公路单车事故中熟悉驾驶员和不熟悉驾驶员的损伤严重程度分析。

Injury severity analysis of familiar drivers and unfamiliar drivers in single-vehicle crashes on the mountainous highways.

机构信息

School of Civil Engineering and Transportation, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou, 510000, Guangdong, China.

School of Civil Engineering and Transportation, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou, 510000, Guangdong, China.

出版信息

Accid Anal Prev. 2020 Sep;144:105667. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2020.105667. Epub 2020 Jul 8.

Abstract

Mountainous highways suffer from high crash rates and fatality rates in many countries, and single-vehicle crashes are overrepresented along mountainous highways. Route familiarity has been found greatly associated with driver behaviour and traffic safety. This study aimed to investigate and compare the contributory factors that significantly influence the injury severities of the familiar drivers and unfamiliar drivers involved in mountainous highway single-vehicle crashes. Based on 3037 cases of mountainous highway single-vehicle crashes from 2015 to 2017, the characteristics related to crash, environment, vehicle and driver are included. Random-effects generalized ordered probit (REGOP) models were applied to model injury severities of familiar drivers and unfamiliar drivers that are involved in the single-vehicle crashes on the mountainous highways, given that the single-vehicle crashes had occurred. The results of REGOP models showed that 8 of the studied factors are found to be significantly associated with the injury severities of the familiar drivers, and 10 of the studied factors are found to significantly influence the injury severities of unfamiliar drivers. These research results suggest that there is a large difference of significant factors contributing to the injury severities between familiar drivers and unfamiliar drivers. The results shed light on both the similar and different causes of high injury severities for familiar and unfamiliar drivers involved in mountainous highway single-vehicle crashes. These research results can help develop effective countermeasures and proper policies for familiar drivers and unfamiliar drivers targetedly on the mountainous highways and alleviate injury severities of mountainous highway single-vehicle crashes to some extent. Based on the results of this study, some potential countermeasures can be proposed to minimize the risk of single-vehicle crashes on different mountainous highways, including tourism highways with a large number of unfamiliar drivers and other normal mountainous highways with more familiar drivers.

摘要

山区高速公路在许多国家的碰撞率和死亡率都很高,单辆汽车碰撞事故在山区高速公路上更为突出。路线熟悉度与驾驶员行为和交通安全密切相关。本研究旨在调查和比较显著影响熟悉驾驶员和不熟悉驾驶员在山区高速公路单辆汽车碰撞事故中受伤严重程度的因素。基于 2015 年至 2017 年的 3037 起山区高速公路单辆汽车碰撞事故案例,包括与事故、环境、车辆和驾驶员相关的特征。应用随机效应广义有序概率(REGOP)模型对山区高速公路单辆汽车碰撞事故中熟悉驾驶员和不熟悉驾驶员的受伤严重程度进行建模,因为单辆汽车碰撞事故已经发生。REGOP 模型的结果表明,在所研究的 18 个因素中,有 8 个因素与熟悉驾驶员的受伤严重程度显著相关,有 10 个因素与不熟悉驾驶员的受伤严重程度显著相关。这些研究结果表明,导致熟悉驾驶员和不熟悉驾驶员受伤严重程度的显著因素存在很大差异。这些研究结果揭示了熟悉和不熟悉驾驶员在山区高速公路单辆汽车碰撞事故中导致高受伤严重程度的相似和不同原因。这些研究结果可以帮助制定有针对性的有效对策和适当政策,以减轻山区高速公路单辆汽车碰撞事故的受伤严重程度。基于这项研究的结果,可以提出一些潜在的对策,以最大限度地降低不同山区高速公路上的单辆汽车碰撞事故风险,包括旅游公路上有大量不熟悉驾驶员的车辆和其他正常山区公路上有更多熟悉驾驶员的车辆。

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