Institute of Research and Development, Suranaree University of Technology, 111, University Avenue, Suranaree, Muang Nakhon Ratchasima, 30000, Thailand.
Department of Management, Faculty of Business Administration, Rajamangala University of Technology Isan, 744 Sura Narai Rd, Nai-Muang, Muang Nakhon Ratchasima, 30000, Thailand.
Sci Rep. 2023 Jun 16;13(1):9756. doi: 10.1038/s41598-023-36906-7.
Upon detecting a crash impact, the vehicle restraint system locks the driver in place. However, external factors such as speeding, crash mechanisms, roadway attributes, vehicle type, and the surrounding environment typically contribute to the driver being jostled within the vehicle. As a result, it is crucial to model unrestrained and restrained drivers separately to reveal the true impact of the restraint system and other factors on driver injury severities. This paper aims to explore the differences in factors affecting injury severity for seatbelt-restrained and unrestrained drivers involved in speeding-related crashes while accounting for temporal instability in the investigation. Utilizing crash data from Thailand between 2012 and 2017, mixed logit models with heterogeneity in means and variances were employed to account for multi-layered unobserved heterogeneity. For restrained drivers, the risk of fatal or severe crashes was positively associated with factors such as male drivers, alcohol influence, flush/barrier median roadways, sloped roadways, vans, running off the roadway without roadside guardrails, and nighttime on unlit or lit roads. For unrestrained drivers, the likelihood of fatal or severe injuries increased in crashes involving older drivers, alcohol influence, raised or depressed median roadways, four-lane roadways, passenger cars, running off the roadway without roadside guardrails, and crashes occurring in rainy conditions. The out-of-sample prediction simulation results are particularly significant, as they show the maximum safety benefits achievable solely by using a vehicle's seatbelt system. Likelihood ratio test and predictive comparison findings highlight the considerable combined impact of temporal instability and the non-transferability of restrained and unrestrained driver injury severities across the periods studied. This finding also demonstrates a potential reduction in severe and fatal injury rates by simply replicating restrained driver conditions. The findings should be of value to policymakers, decision-makers, and highway engineers when developing potential countermeasures to improve driver safety and reduce the frequency of severe and fatal speeding-related single-vehicle crashes.
在检测到碰撞冲击时，车辆约束系统将驾驶员锁定在原地。然而，超速、碰撞机制、道路属性、车辆类型和周围环境等外部因素通常会导致驾驶员在车内晃动。因此，分别对未系安全带和系安全带的驾驶员进行建模以揭示约束系统和其他因素对驾驶员伤害严重程度的真正影响至关重要。本文旨在探讨在考虑调查中时间不稳定性的情况下，与超速相关的碰撞中，系安全带和未系安全带的驾驶员受伤严重程度的影响因素差异。利用 2012 年至 2017 年泰国的碰撞数据，使用均值和方差异质性混合对数模型来解释多层次的未观察到的异质性。对于系安全带的驾驶员，致命或严重碰撞的风险与男性驾驶员、酒精影响、中央隔离带/路障、倾斜道路、厢式货车、无路边护栏驶出路外以及夜间无路灯或路灯照明道路等因素呈正相关。对于未系安全带的驾驶员，在涉及老年驾驶员、酒精影响、凸起或凹陷中央隔离带、四车道道路、乘用车、无路边护栏驶出路外以及在雨天发生的碰撞中，致命或严重伤害的可能性增加。样本外预测模拟结果特别重要，因为它们显示了仅使用车辆安全带系统可实现的最大安全效益。似然比检验和预测比较结果突出了时间不稳定性和受约束和不受约束的驾驶员伤害严重程度在研究期间不可转移的综合影响。这一发现还表明，通过简单地复制受约束驾驶员的条件，严重和致命伤害率可能会降低。当制定潜在的对策以提高驾驶员安全性并减少严重和致命的超速相关单车碰撞的频率时，决策者、决策者和公路工程师应将这些发现视为有价值的参考。
