Bemanian Amin, Ahn Kwang Woo, O'Brien Mallory, Rausch Darren J, Weston Benjamin, Beyer Kirsten M M
Institute for Health and Equity, Medical College of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
Greenfield Health Department, Greenfield, Wisconsin.
WMJ. 2020 Jun;119(2):84-90.
The coronavirus pandemic has placed enormous stresses on health care systems across the United States and internationally. Predictive modeling has been an important tool for projecting utilization rates and surge planning. As the initial outbreak begins to slow, questions are being raised regarding long-term coronavirus mitigation plans. This paper examines the current status of the coronavirus outbreak in Milwaukee County, Wisconsin, and simulates several scenarios where physical distancing measures are removed.
The outbreak's doubling time, reproductive numbers at several points, and incidence curve were calculated to assess outbreak progression. Compartmental models were used to estimate the number of hospitalizations and critically ill patients in Milwaukee County if distancing policies were removed.
The compartmental models predict a substantial spike in cases and overwhelming medical resource utilization with an abrupt end to social distancing. Partial reduction in social distancing policies would likely result in a smaller spike, with less severe strain on available medical resources.
Milwaukee County remains very susceptible to a resurgence of COVID-19 cases. Removing physical distancing policies poses significant risks with regard to resource management.
冠状病毒大流行给美国乃至全球的医疗系统带来了巨大压力。预测模型一直是预测利用率和制定应对高峰计划的重要工具。随着疫情初期的爆发开始放缓，人们对长期的冠状病毒缓解计划提出了疑问。本文研究了威斯康星州密尔沃基县冠状病毒爆发的现状，并模拟了取消物理距离措施的几种情况。
计算疫情的倍增时间、几个时间点的繁殖数和发病率曲线，以评估疫情进展。使用 compartmental 模型估计如果取消社交距离政策，密尔沃基县的住院人数和重症患者数量。
compartmental 模型预测，如果突然结束社交距离，病例将大幅激增，医疗资源将被大量占用。部分放宽社交距离政策可能会导致较小幅度的激增，对可用医疗资源的压力也会较小。
密尔沃基县仍然极易再次出现 COVID-19 病例。取消物理距离政策在资源管理方面存在重大风险。
