Public Health Informatics, Computational, and Operations Research, City University of New York, New York City, New York, USA.
J Infect Dis. 2020 Nov 9;222(11):1910-1919. doi: 10.1093/infdis/jiaa292.
Although norovirus outbreaks periodically make headlines, it is unclear how much attention norovirus may receive otherwise. A better understanding of the burden could help determine how to prioritize norovirus prevention and control.
We developed a computational simulation model to quantify the clinical and economic burden of norovirus in the United States.
A symptomatic case generated $48 in direct medical costs, $416 in productivity losses ($464 total). The median yearly cost of outbreaks was $7.6 million (range across years, $7.5-$8.2 million) in direct medical costs, and $165.3 million ($161.1-$176.4 million) in productivity losses ($173.5 million total). Sporadic illnesses in the community (incidence, 10-150/1000 population) resulted in 14 118-211 705 hospitalizations, 8.2-122.9 million missed school/work days, $0.2-$2.3 billion in direct medical costs, and $1.4-$20.7 billion in productivity losses ($1.5-$23.1 billion total). The total cost was $10.6 billion based on the current incidence estimate (68.9/1000).
Our study quantified norovirus' burden. Of the total burden, sporadic cases constituted >90% (thus, annual burden may vary depending on incidence) and productivity losses represented 89%. More than half the economic burden is in adults ≥45, more than half occurs in winter months, and >90% of outbreak costs are due to person-to-person transmission, offering insights into where and when prevention/control efforts may yield returns.
虽然诺如病毒疫情不时成为头条新闻,但目前尚不清楚公众对诺如病毒的关注度如何。更好地了解其负担情况有助于确定如何优先考虑预防和控制诺如病毒。
我们开发了一种计算模拟模型,以量化美国诺如病毒的临床和经济负担。
一个有症状的病例产生了 48 美元的直接医疗费用和 416 美元的生产力损失(总计 464 美元)。疫情爆发的年平均直接医疗费用为 760 万美元(各年波动范围为 750 万至 820 万美元),生产力损失为 1.653 亿美元(总计 1.735 亿美元)。社区散发疾病(发病率为 10-150/1000 人口)导致 14118-211705 例住院,820-12290 万人缺课/旷工,2000-2300 万美元直接医疗费用和 1400-2070 亿美元生产力损失(总计 1500-2310 亿美元)。根据目前的发病率估计(68.9/1000),总费用为 106 亿美元。
我们的研究量化了诺如病毒的负担。在总负担中,散发病例占 90%以上(因此,年度负担可能因发病率而异),生产力损失占 89%。超过一半的经济负担发生在≥45 岁的成年人中,超过一半的病例发生在冬季,超过 90%的疫情爆发成本归因于人际传播,这为我们提供了有关在何处以及何时开展预防/控制工作可能获得回报的见解。