Department of Global Value Chains and Trade, Faculty of Agribusiness and Commerce, Lincoln University, Christchurch, Lincoln 7647, New Zealand.
Department of Global Value Chains and Trade, Faculty of Agribusiness and Commerce, Lincoln University, Christchurch, Lincoln 7647, New Zealand.
J Dairy Sci. 2020 Sep;103(9):8251-8256. doi: 10.3168/jds.2019-17506. Epub 2020 Jul 16.
For a variety of reasons, dairy sector indebtedness has increased in recent years. However, it is not clear whether increased debt boosts or damages the economic performance of dairy farms. This paper provides empirical evidence by exploring the effects of farm debt measured by debt-to-asset ratio on dairy productivity and profitability, using the New Zealand DairyBase data of 2,637 dairy farms for a 10-yr period 2005 to 2014. A fixed-effects panel data model is utilized for the empirical analysis. The findings show that farm debt is significantly and negatively associated with both dairy productivity and profitability. We find that dairy productivity is positively determined by production intensification, irrigation intensity, milking frequency, cattle breeds and stocking rate, whereas dairy profitability is positively affected by milk price, business type, milking frequency, and stocking rate. Further analyses reveal that the debt ratio significantly decreases both the technical efficiency of dairy farms and return on assets; a high debt ratio increased dairy productivity between 2005 and 2009, whereas it decreased dairy productivity between 2011 and 2014; the effects of the debt ratio on dairy profitability vary over time. The analysis for a 10-yr balanced panel data (250 farms) shows that debt ratio does not significantly affect both dairy productivity and profitability, which suggests that the presence of farm-specific attributes such as farm life cycle and managerial ability of dairy farmers may also affect the debt ratio and through this farm performance.
由于种种原因，近年来奶制品行业的负债有所增加。然而，增加的债务是否会提高或损害奶农的经济业绩尚不清楚。本文利用新西兰 DairyBase 数据库 2005 年至 2014 年的 2637 个奶农 10 年的数据，通过探索以债务与资产比率衡量的农场债务对奶制品生产力和盈利能力的影响，提供了经验证据。实证分析采用固定效应面板数据模型。研究结果表明，农场债务与奶制品生产力和盈利能力呈显著负相关。我们发现，生产集约化、灌溉强度、挤奶频率、牛品种和存栏率均对奶制品生产力有正向影响，而牛奶价格、经营类型、挤奶频率和存栏率则对奶制品盈利能力有正向影响。进一步的分析表明，债务比率显著降低了奶农的技术效率和资产回报率；高债务比率在 2005 年至 2009 年期间提高了奶制品生产力，而在 2011 年至 2014 年期间则降低了奶制品生产力；债务比率对奶制品盈利能力的影响随时间而变化。对 10 年平衡面板数据（250 个农场）的分析表明，债务比率对奶制品生产力和盈利能力均无显著影响，这表明奶农的农场生命周期和管理能力等特定于农场的属性也可能影响债务比率，并通过这种方式影响农场业绩。
