Anti-Müllerian hormone and antral follicle count differ in their ability to predict cumulative treatment outcomes of the first complete ovarian stimulation cycle in patients from POSEIDON groups 3 and 4.

AIM

To explore the ability of anti-Müllerian hormone and antral follicle count to predict cumulative live birth and clinical pregnancy in the first complete ovarian stimulation cycle among patients from POSEIDON (Patient-Oriented Strategies Encompassing IndividualizeD Oocyte Number) groups 3-4.

METHODS

A single-center retrospective study was conducted on 260 patients in POSEIDON groups 3-4 (antral follicle count <5 and/or anti-Müllerian hormone <1.2 ng/mL) who first underwent complete in vitro fertilization/intracytoplasmic sperm injection cycles between January 2016 and June 2018. The main outcomes were cumulative live birth rate and cumulative clinical pregnancy rate.

RESULTS

Of 260 patients, 113 (43.5%) achieved clinical pregnancy and 82 (31.5%) achieved live birth in their first complete ovarian stimulation cycles. With multivariate regression analysis, age and antral follicle count were significantly correlated with cumulative clinical pregnancy, whereas age and anti-Müllerian hormone were significantly associated with cumulative live birth. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis demonstrated that age had the highest accuracy for the prediction of cumulative treatment outcomes. The optimal cut-off value of age was 40.5 and that of antral follicle count was 2.5 for predicting cumulative clinical pregnancy. The optimal cut-off value of age was 36.5 and that of anti-Müllerian hormone was 0.725 for predicting cumulative live birth.

CONCLUSION

Our findings indicate that anti-Müllerian hormone is a better predictor of cumulative live birth than antral follicle count, independent of age, in the first complete ovarian stimulation cycle of in vitro fertilization/intracytoplasmic sperm injection among patients in POSEIDON groups 3-4.