Guangdong Key Laboratory of Environmental Pollution and Health, School of Environment, Jinan University, Guangzhou 511443, China.
Research Center of Low Carbon Economy for Guangzhou Region, Jinan University, Guangzhou 510632, China.
Environ Sci Technol. 2020 Aug 18;54(16):10049-10056. doi: 10.1021/acs.est.0c02273. Epub 2020 Aug 6.
Global marine plastic pollution, which is derived mainly from the input of vast amounts of land-based plastic waste, has drawn increasing public attention. Riverine plastic outflows estimated using models based on the concept of mismanaged plastic waste (MPW) are substantially greater than reported field measurements. Herein, we formulate a robust model using the Human Development Index (HDI) as the main predictor, and the modeled riverine plastic outflows are calibrated and validated by available field data. A strong correlation is achieved between model estimates and field measurements, with a regression coefficient of = 0.9. The model estimates that the global plastic outflows from 1518 main rivers were in the range of 57,000-265,000 (median: 134,000) MT year in 2018, which were approximately one-tenth of the estimates by MPW-based models. With increased plastic production and human development, the global riverine plastic outflow is projected to peak in 2028 in a modeled trajectory of 2010-2050. The HDI is a better indicator than MPW to estimate global riverine plastic outflows, and plastic pollution can be effectively assessed and contained during human development processes. The much lower global riverine plastic outflows should substantially ease the public's concern about marine plastic pollution and financial pressure for remediation.
全球海洋塑料污染主要源自大量陆地塑料垃圾的输入，已引起公众的日益关注。基于管理不善塑料废物（MPW）概念的模型估算的河川塑料流出量大大高于报告的实地测量值。在此，我们制定了一个使用人类发展指数（HDI）作为主要预测因子的稳健模型，并使用可用的实地数据对模型估算的河川塑料流出量进行了校准和验证。模型估算值与实地测量值之间具有很强的相关性，回归系数 = 0.9。模型估计，2018 年，全球 1518 条主要河流的塑料流出量在 57,000-265,000（中位数：134,000）MT 年之间，约为基于 MPW 模型的估计值的十分之一。随着塑料产量和人类发展的增加，全球河川塑料流出量预计将在 2028 年达到峰值，这是 2010-2050 年模拟轨迹的峰值。与 MPW 相比，HDI 是估计全球河川塑料流出量的更好指标，并且可以在人类发展过程中有效评估和控制塑料污染。全球河川塑料流出量要低得多，这应大大减轻公众对海洋塑料污染的担忧和修复的财政压力。
