Using performance data and reproductive measurements to predict fertility in replacement beef heifers.

This study investigated the predictive value of reproductive tract evaluation and growth characteristics measured 30-70 d prior to the breeding season on 1) pregnancy outcome and 2) time to conception in replacement beef heifers. A total of 1,992 heifers (BW 329 ± 42 kg; age 347 ± 27 d) were delivered for enrollment in the Georgia Heifer Evaluation and Reproductive Development () program between 2006 and 2011 at two locations. Physical traits were selected to assess management of heifers prior to entering the program in addition to developmental traits traditionally measured in the HERD program and included: reproductive tract maturity score (), weight 70 d prior to breeding as a percentage of target weight, hip height () 40-50 d prior to breeding, and average daily gain 40-50 d prior to breeding. Cattle entered in the program were of similar age and subjected to comparable nutritional and management programs. Chi-square test of homogeneity (pregnancy status) and the Kaplan-Meier product limit method (number of days from initial breeding to conception) were used to analyze univariate associations with predictor variables. Multivariate analyses of pregnancy status and time to conception were performed using logistic regression and Cox regression, respectively. The odds of pregnancy increased by 15% for every 2.5 cm increase in HH ( = 0.001), and by 20% for every 30-d increase in heifer age at the start of the breeding period ( = 0.019). Although RTS was associated ( = 0.015) with pregnancy status in the univariate analysis, after adjusting for the other variables included in the final multivariable model there was no significant association ( > 0.05). RTS and heifer age were not associated ( > 0.05) with time to conception in the multivariable analysis and were not included in the final model. However, HH was significantly ( 0.005) associated with the time to conception after adjusting for location and year of enrollment. After 35 d, the hazard rate for conception increased 15% for every 2.5 cm increase in HH [hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) = 1.15 (1.04, 1.26); 0.005]. Variables intended to indicate prior management (average daily gain and weight 70 d prior to breeding as a percentage of target weight) were not found to be associated with pregnancy or time to conception. The results suggest that factors relating to maturity can be used to select heifers that are more likely to achieve pregnancy and have reduced times to conception.