Centre for Youth Substance Abuse Research, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia.
School of Psychology, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia.
Drug Alcohol Rev. 2020 Sep;39(6):768-772. doi: 10.1111/dar.13124. Epub 2020 Jul 29.
The potential for increased cannabis use by young people after legalisation remains a key concern of opponents of legalisation. This study used survey data to estimate how many young Australians may be prepared to use cannabis if it became legally available.
The study included 3052 youths (adolescents aged 12-17 and young adults aged 18-25 years) in Australia who participated in the 2016 National Drug Strategy Household Survey. Incident cases were estimated by multiplying the prevalence and estimated population sizes from the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
It was estimated that 17% of adolescents would try (13%) or use (4%), and 32% of young adults would try (15%) or use (17%) cannabis if it were legal. Among those who reported an intention to try it, 85% of adolescents and 59% of young adults had never used cannabis. These translate to 199 000 and 238 000 potential initiators, respectively. Among those with an intention to use cannabis, 21% of adolescents and 3% of young adults had never used cannabis. These translate to 14 000 adolescents and 12 000 young adults who intended to use cannabis if it were legal.
A substantial minority of young Australians say that they would use cannabis for the first time if it were legalised. A proportion of young people who have used cannabis also expressed an interest in increasing their use. Both would warrant special attention if cannabis were legalised.
合法化后年轻人可能增加大麻使用的可能性仍然是合法化反对者的主要关注点。本研究使用调查数据来估计如果大麻合法化，有多少澳大利亚年轻人可能准备使用大麻。
该研究包括澳大利亚的 3052 名年轻人（12-17 岁的青少年和 18-25 岁的年轻人），他们参加了 2016 年国家毒品策略家庭调查。通过将澳大利亚统计局的患病率和估计人口规模相乘来估计偶发病例。
据估计，如果大麻合法化，17%的青少年将尝试（13%）或使用（4%）大麻，32%的年轻人将尝试（15%）或使用（17%）大麻。在那些表示有意尝试的人中，85%的青少年和 59%的年轻人从未使用过大麻。这分别相当于 19.9 万和 23.8 万潜在的使用者。在有意使用大麻的人群中，21%的青少年和 3%的年轻人从未使用过大麻。这相当于 1.4 万名青少年和 1.2 万名有意在大麻合法化后使用大麻的年轻人。
相当一部分澳大利亚年轻人表示，如果大麻合法化，他们将首次使用大麻。一些使用过大麻的年轻人也表示有意增加使用量。如果大麻合法化，两者都需要特别关注。
