Predicting speciation probability from replicated population histories.

In this issue of Molecular Ecology, Yamasaki et al. (2020) use genetic data from extensive sampling of Rhinogobius goby fish across the Ryukyu Archipelago in Japan to demonstrate the parallel speciation of a freshwater form from an ancestral amphidromous form. They then show that ecosystem size strongly predicts the probability of speciation between the two forms across islands. In doing so, this study connects population-level processes (microevolution) to broad-scale biodiversity patterns (macroevolution), an important but understudied link in evolutionary biology. Moving forward, we can build on this research to (a) more directly determine how geographic, ecological and historical factors influence the different stages of the speciation process, and (b) understand whether mechanisms inferred from insular radiations extend to those on continents, where both demographic histories and environmental regimes are likely more complex.