Deflection and Rotation of CMEs from Active Region 11158.

Between 13 and 16 February 2011, a series of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) erupted from multiple polarity inversion lines within active region 11158. For seven of these CMEs we employ the graduated cylindrical shell (GCS) flux rope model to determine the CME trajectory using both (STEREO) extreme ultraviolet (EUV) and coronagraph images. We then use the model called Forecasting a CME's Altered Trajectory (ForeCAT) for nonradial CME dynamics driven by magnetic forces to simulate the deflection and rotation of the seven CMEs. We find good agreement between ForeCAT results and reconstructed CME positions and orientations. The CME deflections range in magnitude between 10° and 30°. All CMEs are deflected to the north, but we find variations in the direction of the longitudinal deflection. The rotations range between 5° and 50° with both clockwise and counterclockwise rotations. Three of the CMEs begin with initial positions within 2° from one another. These three CMEs are all deflected primarily northward, with some minor eastward deflection, and rotate counterclockwise. Their final positions and orientations, however, differ by 20° and 30°, respectively. This variation in deflection and rotation results from differences in the CME expansion and radial propagation close to the Sun, as well as from the CME mass. Ultimately, only one of these seven CMEs yielded discernible signatures near Earth, although the active region faced toward Earth throughout the eruptions. We suggest that the differences in the deflection and rotation of the CMEs can explain whether each CME impacted or missed Earth.