Institute for Agricultural and Forest Environment, Polish Academy of Sciences, Bukowska 19, Poznań 60-809, Poland.
Institute for Agricultural and Forest Environment, Polish Academy of Sciences, Bukowska 19, Poznań 60-809, Poland.
Sci Total Environ. 2020 Dec 10;747:141256. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.141256. Epub 2020 Jul 25.
While global warming has been evolving over several decades, in particular years there have been considerable deviations of global temperature from the underlying trend. These could be explained by climate variability patterns and, in particular, by the major interplays of atmospheric and oceanic processes that generate variations in the global climatic system. Here we show, in a simple and straightforward way, that a rhythm of the major ocean-atmosphere oscillations, such as the ENSO and IPO in the Pacific as well as the AMO in the Atlantic, is indeed meaningfully influencing the global mean annual temperature. We construct time series of residuals of the global temperature from the medium-term (5-year) running averages and show that these largely follow the rhythm of residuals of three basic ocean-atmosphere oscillation modes (ENSO, IPO and AMO) from the 5-year running averages. We find meaningful correlations between analyzed climate variability and deviations of global mean annual temperature residuals that are robust across various datasets and assumptions and explain over 70% of the annual temperature variability in terms of residuals from medium-term averages.
虽然全球变暖已经持续了几十年，但在特定年份，全球温度与基本趋势存在相当大的偏差。这些偏差可以用气候变率模式来解释，特别是可以用大气和海洋过程的主要相互作用来解释，这些过程会导致全球气候系统的变化。在这里，我们以简单直接的方式表明，主要的海洋-大气振荡的节奏，如太平洋的厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）和印度洋偶极子（IPO）以及大西洋的大西洋多年代际震荡（AMO），确实对全球年平均温度有重要影响。我们从中期（5 年）移动平均值中构建全球温度的残差时间序列，并表明这些残差序列在很大程度上遵循三个基本海洋-大气振荡模式（ENSO、IPO 和 AMO）残差序列的节奏。我们发现分析的气候变率与全球年平均温度残差之间存在有意义的相关性，这种相关性在各种数据集和假设下都是稳健的，可以用中期平均值的残差来解释超过 70%的年度温度变化。
