Climate System Analysis Group, University of Cape Town, Private Bag X3, Rondebosch 7701, South Africa; African Climate and Development Initiative, University of Cape Town, Private Bag X3, Rondebosch 7701, South Africa.
Climate System Analysis Group, University of Cape Town, Private Bag X3, Rondebosch 7701, South Africa.
Sci Total Environ. 2020 Dec 10;747:141355. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.141355. Epub 2020 Jul 29.
Heat has the potential to become one of the most significant public health impacts of climate change in the coming decades. Increases in temperature have been linked to both increasing mortality and morbidity. Cities have been recognized as areas of particular vulnerability to heat's impacts on health, and marginalized groups, such as the poor, appear to have higher heat-related morbidity and mortality. Little research has examined the heat vulnerability of urban informal settlements residents in Africa, even though surface temperatures across Africa are projected to increase at a rate faster than the global average. This paper addresses this knowledge gap through a mixed-methods analysis of the heat-health vulnerability of informal settlement residents in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. The heat exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity of informal settlement residents were assessed through a combination of climate analyses, semi-structured interviews with local government actors and informal settlement residents, unstructured interviews with health sector respondents, a health impacts literature review, and a stakeholder engagement workshop. The results suggest that increasing temperatures due to climate change will likely be a significant risk to human health in Dar es Salaam, even though the city does not reach extreme temperature conditions, because informal settlement residents have high exposure, high sensitivity and low adaptive capacity to heat, and because the heat-health relationship is currently an under-prioritized policy issue. While numerous urban planning approaches can play a key role in increasing the resilience of citizens to heat, Dar es Salaam's past and current growth and development patterns greatly complicate the implementation and enforcement of such approaches. For African cities, the findings highlight an urgent need for more research on the vulnerability and resilience of residents to heat-health impacts, because many African cities are likely to present similar characteristics to those in Dar es Salaam that increase resident's vulnerability.
在未来几十年，高温有可能成为气候变化对公共健康的最大影响之一。温度的升高与死亡率和发病率的增加都有关联。城市已被认为是特别容易受到高温对健康影响的地区，而贫困等边缘化群体似乎面临更高的与高温有关的发病率和死亡率。尽管非洲各地的地表温度预计将以比全球平均速度更快的速度上升，但几乎没有研究探讨非洲城市非正规住区居民对高温的脆弱性。本文通过对坦桑尼亚达累斯萨拉姆非正规住区居民的高温健康脆弱性进行混合方法分析，填补了这一知识空白。通过气候分析、与地方政府行为体和非正规住区居民的半结构化访谈、与卫生部门受访者的非结构化访谈、对健康影响文献的综述以及利益攸关方参与研讨会，评估了非正规住区居民的热暴露、敏感性和适应能力。结果表明，由于气候变化导致的气温上升，可能会对达累斯萨拉姆的人类健康造成重大风险，尽管该市尚未达到极端温度条件，因为非正规住区居民对高温的暴露度高、敏感度高、适应能力低，而且目前，高温与健康的关系是一个优先度较低的政策问题。虽然许多城市规划方法都可以在提高公民对高温的适应能力方面发挥关键作用，但达累斯萨拉姆过去和当前的增长和发展模式大大增加了这些方法的实施和执行的复杂性。对于非洲城市来说，研究结果强调了对居民对高温健康影响的脆弱性和适应能力进行更多研究的迫切需要，因为许多非洲城市可能具有与达累斯萨拉姆类似的特征，增加了居民的脆弱性。
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