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利用集合机器学习方法估算东亚地区长期非点源 SO 和 NO 湿沉降。

Estimations of Long-Term nss-SO and NO Wet Depositions over East Asia by Use of Ensemble Machine-Learning Method.

机构信息

Division of Environment and Sustainability, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Clear Water Bay, Hong Kong 999077, China.

Department of Mathematics, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Clear Water Bay, Hong Kong 999077, China.

出版信息

Environ Sci Technol. 2020 Sep 15;54(18):11118-11126. doi: 10.1021/acs.est.0c01068. Epub 2020 Sep 1.

Abstract

Wet deposition of non-sea-salt sulfate (nss-SO) and nitrate (NO), derived from anthropogenic emissions of SO and NO, exerts adverse effects on ecosystems. In this work, an ensemble back-propagation neural network was proposed to estimate the long-term wet depositions of nss-SO (2005-2017) and NO (2001-2014) over East Asia in 10 km resolution. The values for the 10-fold cross-validation of annual wet depositions of nss-SO and NO were 0.90 and 0.85, respectively. The hotspots of the wet deposition of these two acidic species span southwestern, central, and eastern China. The molar ratio of NO to nss-SO increased in 10 out of 12 analyzed East Asian countries from 2005 to 2014, which indicates that the acidity in rainwater shifts from the sulfur type to nitrogen type over most of the regions. The wet deposition on the four ecosystems (forest, grassland, cropland, and freshwater body) was also analyzed. Results showed that the nss-SO wet deposition on 25.5% of freshwater bodies in 2015 and NO wet deposition on 21.7% of grassland in 2014 exceeded the ecosystem empirical critical loads (25 kg/ha sulfate and 2 kg N/ha) in East Asia. Thus, more stringent and regionally collaborative sulfur and nitrogen emission-control measures are urgently needed to protect the ecosystem of East Asia.

摘要

非海盐硫酸盐(nss-SO)和硝酸盐(NO)的湿沉降,来源于人为排放的 SO 和 NO,对生态系统产生不利影响。在这项工作中,提出了一种集成反向传播神经网络来估计东亚地区 nss-SO(2005-2017 年)和 NO(2001-2014 年)的长期湿沉降。10 倍交叉验证的 nss-SO 和 NO 的年湿沉降值分别为 0.90 和 0.85。这两种酸性物质湿沉降的热点分布在中国的西南、中部和东部。2005 年至 2014 年期间,在 12 个分析的东亚国家中有 10 个国家的 NO 与 nss-SO 的摩尔比增加,这表明在大多数地区,雨水的酸度从硫型向氮型转变。还分析了四种生态系统(森林、草地、农田和淡水体)的湿沉降。结果表明,2015 年有 25.5%的淡水体 nss-SO 湿沉降和 2014 年有 21.7%的草地 NO 湿沉降超过东亚地区的生态系统经验临界负荷(硫酸盐 25kg/ha,氮 2kg N/ha)。因此,迫切需要采取更严格和区域协作的硫和氮排放控制措施来保护东亚的生态系统。

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