Brodie Jedediah F, Fragoso Jose M V
Division of Biological Sciences and Wildlife Biology Program, University of Montana, 32 Campus Dr., Missoula, MT, 59812, U.S.A.
Departamento de Zoologia, Universidade de Brasılia, Brasılia, DF, 70910-900, Brazil.
Conserv Biol. 2021 Jun;35(3):1009-1018. doi: 10.1111/cobi.13612. Epub 2020 Oct 23.
Mitigating the massive impacts of defaunation on natural ecosystems requires understanding and predicting hunting effort across the landscape. But such understanding has been hindered by the difficulty of assessing the movement patterns of hunters in thick forests and across complex terrain. We statistically tested hypotheses about the spatial distribution of hunting with circuit theory and structural equation models. We used a data set of >7000 known kill locations in Guyana and hunter movement models to test these methods. Comparing models with different resistance layers (i.e., different estimates of how terrain and land cover influence human movement speed) showed that rivers, on average, limited movement rather than serving as transport arteries. Moreover, far more kills occurred close to villages than in remote areas. This, combined with the lack of support for structural equation models that included latent terms for prey depletion driven by past overhunting, suggests that kill locations in this system tended to be driven by where hunters were currently foraging rather than by influences of historical harvest. These analyses are generalizable to a variety of ecosystems, species, and data types, providing a powerful way of enhancing maps and predictions of hunting effort across complex landscapes.
减轻动物灭绝现象对自然生态系统造成的巨大影响,需要了解并预测整个区域的狩猎强度。然而,由于难以评估猎人在茂密森林和复杂地形中的活动模式,这方面的了解受到了阻碍。我们运用电路理论和结构方程模型,对关于狩猎空间分布的假设进行了统计检验。我们使用了圭亚那7000多个已知猎杀地点的数据集和猎人活动模型来测试这些方法。比较具有不同阻力层的模型(即对地形和土地覆盖如何影响人类移动速度的不同估计)表明,河流平均而言限制了移动,而不是充当运输通道。此外,在靠近村庄的地方发生的猎杀远比在偏远地区多。这一点,再加上对包含由过去过度捕猎导致猎物减少的潜在因素的结构方程模型缺乏支持,表明该系统中的猎杀地点往往是由猎人当前觅食的地点驱动的,而不是受历史捕猎的影响。这些分析适用于各种生态系统、物种和数据类型,为增强对复杂景观中狩猎强度的地图绘制和预测提供了一种有力方法。