Venter Zoë
ISEG, Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Universidade de Lisboa, R. Miguel Lúpi, 20, 1249-078 Lisbon, Portugal.
Comp Econ Stud. 2020;62(3):521-554. doi: 10.1057/s41294-020-00129-w. Epub 2020 Aug 3.
The relationship between monetary policy and financial stability has gained importance in recent years as Central Bank policy rates neared the zero-lower bound. We use an SVAR model to study the impact of monetary policy shocks on three proxies for financial stability as well as a proxy for economic growth. Monetary policy is represented by policy rates for the emerging market economies and shadow rates for the advanced economies in our paper. Our main results show that monetary policy may be used to correct asset mispricing, to control fluctuations in the real business cycle and also to tame credit cycles in the majority of cases. Our results also show that for the majority of cases, in line with conventional wisdom, local currencies appreciate following a positive monetary policy shock. Monetary policy intervention may indeed be successful in contributing to or achieving financial stability. The results, however, show that monetary policy may not have the ability to maintain or re-establish financial stability in all cases. Alternative policy choices such as macroprudential policy tool frameworks which are aimed at targeting the financial system as a whole may be implemented as a means of fortifying the economy.
近年来，随着央行政策利率接近零下限，货币政策与金融稳定之间的关系变得愈发重要。我们使用结构向量自回归（SVAR）模型来研究货币政策冲击对金融稳定的三个代理变量以及经济增长的一个代理变量的影响。在本文中，新兴市场经济体的政策利率和发达经济体的影子利率代表货币政策。我们的主要结果表明，在大多数情况下，货币政策可用于纠正资产定价错误、控制实际商业周期波动以及抑制信贷周期。我们的结果还表明，在大多数情况下，与传统观点一致，积极的货币政策冲击后本币会升值。货币政策干预确实可能成功地促进或实现金融稳定。然而，结果表明，货币政策未必能够在所有情况下维持或重建金融稳定。诸如旨在针对整个金融体系的宏观审慎政策工具框架等替代政策选择，可作为强化经济的一种手段加以实施。
