Scott Ryan P, Scott Tyler A, Greer Robert A
Colorado State University.
University of California, Davis.
Energy Policy. 2019 Oct;133. doi: 10.1016/j.enpol.2019.110892. Epub 2019 Jul 30.
The performance of energy service providers has important environmental and safety consequences in local communities. This paper uses a novel dataset compiled from operator reports and infrastructure monitoring data obtained from three different US federal agencies to assess the performance of retail gas utilities nationwide in terms of addressing gas leaks and minimizing leak volumes. Our panel data set includes yearly observations for 727 retail gas utilities from 2009 to 2017. We show that safety hazards and environmental costs of gas leaks are widespread across providers that vary in terms of ownership, size, and region. We then use series of Bayesian hierarchical models to regress four outcome variables--hazardous leaks, end-year unfixed leaks, total gas volume leaked, and significant incidents--on infrastructure conditions, regional service context, and socio-economic service population characteristics. Unlike what is observed in other critical infrastructure cases such as drinking water, socioeconomic conditions are not strongly predictive of service outcomes. Public utilities exhibit better environmental performance on average, and no difference in maintenance backlogs. Because the environmental costs of poor performance--primarily in terms of methane greenhouse gas emissions--are predominantly social, policy tools such as consolidation and privatization are unlikely to improve environmental outcomes.
能源服务提供商的表现会对当地社区产生重要的环境和安全影响。本文使用了一个新颖的数据集,该数据集由从美国三个不同联邦机构获取的运营商报告和基础设施监测数据汇编而成,旨在评估全国范围内零售燃气公用事业公司在解决燃气泄漏及最小化泄漏量方面的表现。我们的面板数据集包含了2009年至2017年727家零售燃气公用事业公司的年度观测数据。我们发现,燃气泄漏带来的安全隐患和环境成本在不同所有制、规模和地区的供应商中普遍存在。然后,我们使用一系列贝叶斯分层模型,将四个结果变量——危险泄漏、年末未修复泄漏、总泄漏气量和重大事故——与基础设施状况、区域服务环境以及社会经济服务人口特征进行回归分析。与饮用水等其他关键基础设施情况不同,社会经济状况对服务结果的预测性并不强。平均而言,公共事业公司表现出更好的环境绩效,且在维护积压方面没有差异。由于表现不佳带来的环境成本——主要是甲烷温室气体排放方面——主要是社会性的,因此诸如合并和私有化等政策工具不太可能改善环境结果。