John E. Walker Department of Economics, Clemson University, Clemson, South Carolina, USA.
Center for the Economics of Human Development, The University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois, USA.
Health Econ. 2021 Nov;30 Suppl 1(Suppl 1):119-141. doi: 10.1002/hec.4148. Epub 2020 Sep 4.
This study forecasts the life-cycle treatment effects on health of a high-quality early childhood program. Our predictions combine microsimulation using nonexperimental data with experimental data from a midlife long-term follow-up. The follow-up incorporated a full epidemiological exam. The program mainly benefits males and significantly reduces the prevalence of heart disease, stroke, cancer, and mortality across the life-cycle. For men, we estimate an average reduction of 3.8 disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). The reduction in DALYs is relatively small for women. The gain in quality-adjusted life years is almost enough to offset all of the costs associated with program implementation for males and half of program costs for women.
本研究预测了高质量幼儿教育计划对健康的生命周期治疗效果。我们的预测结合了使用非实验数据的微观模拟和中年长期随访的实验数据。该随访纳入了全面的流行病学检查。该计划主要使男性受益，并显著降低了整个生命周期中心脏病、中风、癌症和死亡率的发病率。对于男性，我们估计平均减少 3.8 个伤残调整生命年（DALYs）。对于女性来说，DALYs 的减少相对较小。质量调整生命年的增加几乎足以抵消男性计划实施相关的所有成本和女性一半的计划成本。
