Rijal Sushila, Rimal Bhagawat, Stork Nigel, Sharma Hari Prasad
Department of Environmental Management, Prince of Songkla University, Hat Yai, Thailand.
College of Applied Sciences, (CAS)-Nepal, Tribhuvan University, Kathmandu, Nepal.
Environ Monit Assess. 2020 Sep 9;192(10):633. doi: 10.1007/s10661-020-08544-3.
The Tarai region of Nepal is regarded as the food bowl of Nepal, and yet urban areas have increased in size at an average annual rate of 12% for the 30 years since 1988/1989, largely at the expense of prime agricultural land. Nepal is recognized internationally as highly sensitive to food security with 40% of its population undernourished. To aid future planning and reduce potential further loss of agricultural land and consequent increased food insecurity, we here investigated the previously unknown factors underlying this rapid urban expansion. We achieved this through analyses of land use and land cover (LULC) data, population, and climatic data, in association with focus group discussions and questionnaire surveys. We found that socioeconomic factors were perceived to have made the highest (62%) contribution to urbanization, particularly migration-led population growth and the economic opportunities offered by urban areas, followed by political factors (14.5%), physical factors (12%), and planning and policy factors (11.5%). In addition, climate and physiographic features make the area attractive for urban development along with favorable government plans and policies. Accelerated urban expansion during this period was particularly driven by mass migration due to political upheaval in the country resulting in rapid population and urban center growth. Of the total 293 urban centers in the country, the Tarai region includes 150 (51.2%) of which 77 (26.3%) are located in province 2 alone and accommodate 17.2% of Nepal's households. This increasing urbanization trend is expected to continue in the future due to current socioeconomic and demographic factors. We hope our results which show what has driven past urbanization will aid future urban planning and management of the Tarai as well as other similar regions elsewhere in the world. We also identified that such rapid urban growth is largely at the cost of populations in rural areas with rural depopulation resulting in agriculture being abandoned in some areas. Given Nepal's sensitivity to food security and lower food production, this will be an increasing problem for the future.
尼泊尔的特莱地区被视为尼泊尔的粮仓，然而自1988/1989年以来的30年里，城市面积以年均12%的速度增长，主要是以优质农田为代价。尼泊尔在国际上被公认为对粮食安全高度敏感，40%的人口营养不良。为了帮助未来的规划并减少农业用地的潜在进一步损失以及随之而来的粮食不安全加剧，我们在此调查了此前未知的导致这种快速城市扩张的因素。我们通过分析土地利用和土地覆盖（LULC）数据、人口和气候数据，并结合焦点小组讨论和问卷调查来实现这一目标。我们发现，社会经济因素被认为对城市化的贡献最大（62%），尤其是移民导致的人口增长以及城市提供的经济机会，其次是政治因素（14.5%）、自然因素（12%）以及规划和政策因素（11.5%）。此外，气候和地形特征以及有利的政府规划和政策使得该地区对城市发展具有吸引力。这一时期城市的加速扩张尤其受到该国政治动荡导致的大规模移民的推动，从而导致人口和城市中心迅速增长。在该国总共293个城市中心中，特莱地区有150个（占51.2%），其中仅第2省就有77个（占26.3%），容纳了尼泊尔17.2%的家庭。由于当前的社会经济和人口因素，这种城市化趋势预计在未来还将持续。我们希望我们展示过去城市化驱动因素的研究结果将有助于特莱地区以及世界其他类似地区未来的城市规划和管理。我们还发现，这种快速的城市增长在很大程度上是以农村地区的人口为代价的，农村人口减少导致一些地区的农业被荒废。鉴于尼泊尔对粮食安全的敏感性以及较低的粮食产量，这将成为未来日益严重的问题。
