东非绵羊热、边虫病和巴贝斯虫病导致的牛月降雨量与死亡率之间的关联。
Associations between monthly rainfall and mortality in cattle due to East Coast fever, anaplasmosis and babesiosis.
机构信息
Kenya Wildlife Service, P.O. Box 40241-00100, Nairobi, Kenya.
Wageningen University, Wildlife Ecology and Conservation Group, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA, Wageningen, The Netherlands.
出版信息
Parasitology. 2020 Dec;147(14):1743-1751. doi: 10.1017/S0031182020001638. Epub 2020 Sep 10.
Weather conditions can impact infectious disease transmission, causing mortalities in humans, wild and domestic animals. Although rainfall in dry tropical regions is highly variable over the year, rainfall is thought to play an important role in the transmission of tick-borne diseases. Whether variation in rainfall affects disease-induced mortalities, is, however, poorly understood. Here, we use long-term data on monthly rainfall and Boran cattle mortality (1998-2017) to investigate associations between within-year variation in rainfall and cattle mortalities due to East Coast fever (ECF), anaplasmosis and babesiosis in Laikipia, Kenya, using ARIMAX modelling. Results show a negative correlation between monthly rainfall and cattle mortality for ECF and anaplasmosis, with a lag effect of 2 and 6 months, respectively. There was no association between babesiosis-induced mortalities and monthly rainfall. The results of this study suggest that control of the tick-borne diseases ECF and anaplasmosis to reduce mortalities should be intensified during rainy periods after the respective estimated time lags following dry periods.
天气条件会影响传染病的传播，导致人类、野生动物和家养动物死亡。尽管热带干旱地区的年降雨量变化很大，但降雨被认为在蜱传疾病的传播中起着重要作用。然而，降雨的变化是否会影响疾病引起的死亡率，人们对此知之甚少。在这里，我们使用了关于每月降雨量和博拉尼牛死亡率（1998-2017 年）的长期数据，使用 ARIMAX 模型，在肯尼亚莱基皮亚调查年内降雨量变化与因东海岸热（ECF）、无形体病和巴贝斯虫病导致的牛死亡率之间的关系。结果表明，ECF 和无形体病的月降雨量与牛死亡率呈负相关，分别有 2 个月和 6 个月的滞后效应。巴贝斯虫病引起的死亡率与月降雨量之间没有关联。本研究结果表明，应在旱季后的估计时间滞后后，在雨季加强控制蜱传疾病 ECF 和无形体病以减少死亡率。
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