College of Economics and Management, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan, Hubei Province.
Disaster Med Public Health Prep. 2022 Feb;16(1):262-270. doi: 10.1017/dmp.2020.343. Epub 2020 Sep 10.
The objectives of this study is to predict the possible trajectory of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) spread in the United States. Prediction and severity ratings of COVID-19 are essential for pandemic control and economic reopening in the United States.
In this study, we apply the logistic and Gompertz model to evaluate possible turning points of the COVID-19 pandemic in different regions. By combining uncertainty and severity factors, this study constructed an indicator to assess the severity of the coronavirus outbreak in various states.
Based on the index of severity ratings, different regions of the United States are classified into 4 categories. The result shows that it is possible to identify the first turning point in Montana and Hawaii. It is unclear when the rest of the states will reach the first peak. However, it can be inferred that 75% of regions will not reach the first peak of coronavirus before August 2, 2020.
It is still essential for the majority of states to take proactive steps to fight against COVID-19 before August 2, 2020.
本研究旨在预测 2019 年冠状病毒病（COVID-19）在美国的传播可能轨迹。对 COVID-19 的预测和严重程度分级对美国的大流行控制和经济重启至关重要。
在本研究中，我们应用 logistic 和 Gompertz 模型来评估不同地区 COVID-19 大流行的可能转折点。通过结合不确定性和严重程度因素，本研究构建了一个指标来评估各州冠状病毒爆发的严重程度。
基于严重程度分级指数，美国不同地区分为 4 类。结果表明，蒙大拿州和夏威夷州有可能出现第一个转折点。其他各州何时达到第一个高峰尚不清楚。然而，可以推断出，到 2020 年 8 月 2 日之前，75%的地区不会出现冠状病毒的第一个高峰。
在 2020 年 8 月 2 日之前，大多数州仍有必要采取积极措施对抗 COVID-19。
