National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Alaska Fisheries Science Center, 7600 Sand Point Way N.E., Seattle, WA, 98115, USA.
School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98195, USA.
Nat Commun. 2020 Sep 11;11(1):4579. doi: 10.1038/s41467-020-18300-3.
Climate change is impacting fisheries worldwide with uncertain outcomes for food and nutritional security. Using management strategy evaluations for key US fisheries in the eastern Bering Sea we find that Ecosystem Based Fisheries Management (EBFM) measures forestall future declines under climate change over non-EBFM approaches. Yet, benefits are species-specific and decrease markedly after 2050. Under high-baseline carbon emission scenarios (RCP 8.5), end-of-century (2075-2100) pollock and Pacific cod fisheries collapse in >70% and >35% of all simulations, respectively. Our analysis suggests that 2.1-2.3 °C (modeled summer bottom temperature) is a tipping point of rapid decline in gadid biomass and catch. Multiyear stanzas above 2.1 °C become commonplace in projections from ~2030 onward, with higher agreement under RCP 8.5 than simulations with moderate carbon mitigation (i.e., RCP 4.5). We find that EBFM ameliorates climate change impacts on fisheries in the near-term, but long-term EBFM benefits are limited by the magnitude of anticipated change.
气候变化正在影响全球渔业，对粮食和营养安全产生不确定影响。我们通过对美国东部白令海关键渔业的管理策略评估发现，基于生态系统的渔业管理（EBFM）措施可以防止气候变化导致的未来衰退，而非 EBFM 方法则不行。然而，效益是特定于物种的，并且在 2050 年后明显下降。在高基线碳排放情景（RCP 8.5）下，本世纪末（2075-2100 年）鳕鱼和太平洋鳕鱼渔业在所有模拟中的崩溃比例分别超过 70%和 35%。我们的分析表明，2.1-2.3°C（模拟夏季底层水温）是北方鳕鱼生物量和渔获量快速下降的临界点。从 2030 年左右开始，超过 2.1°C 的多年期阶段变得很常见，在 RCP 8.5 下的预测比在适度碳减排（即 RCP 4.5）下的模拟更为一致。我们发现，EBFM 可以在短期内缓解气候变化对渔业的影响，但长期的 EBFM 效益受到预期变化幅度的限制。
