Development and Validation of a Prognostic Nomogram Based on Residual Tumor in Patients With Nondisseminated Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma.

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the prognostic value of residual tumor based on Magnetic resonance imaging(MRI) and establish an effective prognostic nomogram model referring to clinical,pathological and other related factors for predicting prognosis in nasopharyngeal carcinoma.

METHODS

Overall, 538 patients with non-metastatic, histologically-confirmed nasopharyngeal carcinoma were retrospectively examined. Data from 397 patients were used for the construction and validation of a nomogram based on the presence of residual tumor. A concordance index (C-index) was employed to assess the predictive accuracy and discriminative ability of the nomogram.

RESULTS

The 3-year survival rates in the non-residual and residual tumor cohorts were as follows: progression-free survival, 73.4% vs. 61.0%, P = 0.009; locoregional recurrence-free survival, 81.9% vs. 72.0%, P = 0.02; and distant metastasis-free survival, 80.7% vs. 73.5%, P = 0.11. Nine significant factors were included in the nomogram model. The calibration curve for the probability of progression-free survival showed that the nomogram-based predictive values had good concordance with the actual observations.

CONCLUSION

The results showed that the patients in the residual tumor cohorts had a worse prognosis.The proposed nomogram may predict the prognosis and guide clinical decision-making concerning local residual tumors in nasopharyngeal carcinoma patients. Patients with a high risk of progression require more timely and aggressive treatment.