School of Social Work, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA, USA.
School of Social Welfare & Goldman School of Public Policy, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, USA.
Am J Community Psychol. 2021 Mar;67(1-2):103-115. doi: 10.1002/ajcp.12463. Epub 2020 Sep 22.
Justice-involved people vary substantially in their risk of reoffending. To date, recidivism prediction and prevention efforts have largely focused on individual-level factors like antisocial traits. Although a growing body of research has examined the role of residential contexts in predicting reoffending, results have been equivocal. One reason for mixed results may be that an individual's susceptibility to contextual influence depends upon his or her accumulated risk of reoffending. Based on a sample of 2218 people on probation in San Francisco, California, this study draws on observational and secondary data to test the hypothesis that individual risk moderates the effect of neighborhood factors on recidivism. Results from survival analyses indicate that individual risk interacts with neighborhood concentrated disadvantage and disorder-and these factors increase recidivism among people relatively low in individual risk, but not those at higher risk. This is consistent with the disadvantage saturation perspective, raising the possibility that some people classified as low risk might not recidivate but for placement in disadvantaged and disorderly neighborhoods. Ultimately, residential contexts "matter" for lower risk people and may be useful to consider in efforts to prevent recidivism.
涉案人员的再犯罪风险差异很大。迄今为止，累犯预测和预防工作主要集中在反社会特征等个体层面因素上。尽管越来越多的研究已经检验了居住环境在预测累犯方面的作用，但结果却存在争议。结果不一致的一个原因可能是，个人对环境影响的易感性取决于其累犯的累积风险。本研究基于加利福尼亚州旧金山 2218 名缓刑犯人的观察性和二手数据，检验了这样一个假设，即个体风险会调节邻里因素对累犯的影响。生存分析结果表明，个体风险与邻里集中的贫困和混乱相互作用——这些因素会增加个体风险较低的人的累犯率，但不会增加个体风险较高的人的累犯率。这与劣势饱和观点一致，提出了这样一种可能性，即一些被归类为低风险的人可能不会再犯罪，但如果被安置在贫困和混乱的社区。最终，居住环境对低风险人群“很重要”，在预防累犯方面可能值得考虑。
