Faculty of Social and Political Sciences, University of Peloponnese, Corinth, Greece.
5th Pulmonary Department, Sotiria Chest Diseases Hospital, Athens, Greece.
Public Health. 2020 Oct;187:136-139. doi: 10.1016/j.puhe.2020.08.016. Epub 2020 Aug 25.
The aim of the study was to assess the impact of social distancing interventions in Greece and to examine what would have happened if those interventions had not been implemented.
A dynamic, discrete time, stochastic individual-based model was developed to simulate coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) transmission.
The model was fitted to the observed trends in COVID-19 deaths and intensive care unit (ICU) bed use in Greece.
If Greece had not implemented social distancing interventions, the healthcare system would have been overwhelmed between March 30 and April 4. The combined social distancing interventions and increase in ICU beds averted 4360 (95% credible interval: 3050, 5700) deaths and prevented the healthcare system from becoming overwhelmed.
The quick and accurate interventions of the Greek government limited the burden of the COVID-19 outbreak.
本研究旨在评估希腊实施社交距离干预措施的效果，并探讨如果不实施这些干预措施将会发生什么情况。
开发了一个动态、离散时间、随机个体为基础的模型，以模拟 2019 年冠状病毒病（COVID-19）的传播。
该模型拟合了希腊 COVID-19 死亡和重症监护病房（ICU）床位使用的实际趋势。
如果希腊没有实施社交距离干预措施，医疗系统将在 3 月 30 日至 4 月 4 日之间不堪重负。综合社交距离干预措施和 ICU 床位的增加，避免了 4360 人（95%可信区间：3050，5700）死亡，并防止医疗系统不堪重负。
希腊政府迅速而准确的干预措施限制了 COVID-19 疫情的负担。
