Center for Cancer Control and Information Services, National Cancer Center.
Radiation Medical Science Center for the Fukushima Health Management Survey, Fukushima Medical University.
J Epidemiol. 2021 Dec 5;31(12):653-659. doi: 10.2188/jea.JE20200202. Epub 2021 Feb 18.
Cancer incidence in Fukushima Prefecture, especially thyroid cancer, has been a public concern, since the Tokyo Electric Power Company Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plants accident following the Great East Japan Earthquake on March 11, 2011; however, cancer incidence for Fukushima residents before and after the accident based on a population-based cancer registry (PBCR) has not been known worldwide.
We obtained the corrected-incidence data for invasive cancers newly diagnosed from 2008 through 2015 from the Fukushima Cancer Registry. We checked data quality indicators for PBCRs to confirm comparability. We calculated age-standardized annual incidence and mortality of cancer for all-site, thyroid, and leukemia by calendar year and sex, as we did for Tochigi Prefecture and all of Japan as references for comparison. We applied joinpoint trend analysis to test an apparent trend in incidence and mortality.
The corrected incidence data from the Fukushima Cancer Registry had sufficient quality comparable to other PBCRs. For the age-standardized annual incidence by sex and cancer type in Fukushima and Tochigi, we did not detect any joinpoint in trend with statistical significance. Cancer incidence gently increased from 2008 through 2015 nationwide. Incidence and mortality of cancer for Fukushima before the accident was very close to that for Tochigi.
We interpreted the incidence statistics of cancer for Fukushima residents from 2008 through 2015. Our results will provide fundamental statistics for subsequent researchers to assess the relationship between the disaster and cancer incidence among Fukushima residents in the long term.
自 2011 年 3 月 11 日东日本大地震以来，福岛县（尤其是甲状腺癌）的癌症发病率一直是公众关注的焦点，因为东京电力公司福岛第一核电站事故的发生；然而，全球范围内尚未了解到福岛居民在事故前后的癌症发病率，基于人口癌症登记（PBCR）的情况。
我们从福岛癌症登记处获得了 2008 年至 2015 年新诊断的侵袭性癌症的校正发病率数据。我们检查了 PBCR 的数据质量指标，以确认可比性。我们按年份和性别计算了所有部位、甲状腺和白血病的癌症年龄标准化年发病率和死亡率，作为与栃木县和日本全国的比较参考。我们应用联合点趋势分析来检验发病率和死亡率的明显趋势。
福岛癌症登记处的校正发病率数据具有与其他 PBCR 相当的足够质量。对于福岛和栃木的按性别和癌症类型划分的年龄标准化年发病率，我们没有检测到任何具有统计学意义的趋势转折点。全国范围内，癌症发病率从 2008 年到 2015 年呈温和上升趋势。事故前福岛的癌症发病率和死亡率与栃木非常接近。
我们解释了 2008 年至 2015 年福岛居民的癌症发病率统计数据。我们的结果将为后续研究人员提供基本的统计数据，以长期评估灾难与福岛居民癌症发病率之间的关系。
