Jahan Farzana, Duncan Earl W, Cramb Susanna M, Baade Peter D, Mengersen Kerrie L
School of Mathematical Science, ARC Centre of Excellence for Mathematical and Statistical Frontiers, Queensland University of Technology, Queensland, Australia.
Cancer Council Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.
R Soc Open Sci. 2020 Aug 5;7(8):192151. doi: 10.1098/rsos.192151. eCollection 2020 Aug.
Analysis of spatial patterns of disease is a significant field of research. However, access to unit-level disease data can be difficult for privacy and other reasons. As a consequence, estimates of interest are often published at the small area level as disease maps. This motivates the development of methods for analysis of these ecological estimates directly. Such analyses can widen the scope of research by drawing more insights from published disease maps or atlases. The present study proposes a hierarchical Bayesian meta-analysis model that analyses the point and interval estimates from an online atlas. The proposed model is illustrated by modelling the published cancer incidence estimates available as part of the online Australian Cancer Atlas (ACA). The proposed model aims to reveal patterns of cancer incidence for the 20 cancers included in ACA in major cities, regional and remote areas. The model results are validated using the observed areal data created from unit-level data on cancer incidence in each of 2148 small areas. It is found that the meta-analysis models can generate similar patterns of cancer incidence based on urban/rural status of small areas compared with those already known or revealed by the analysis of observed data. The proposed approach can be generalized to other online disease maps and atlases.
疾病空间模式分析是一个重要的研究领域。然而,由于隐私和其他原因,获取单位层面的疾病数据可能会很困难。因此,人们感兴趣的估计值通常会以疾病地图的形式在小区域层面发布。这推动了直接分析这些生态估计值的方法的发展。此类分析可以通过从已发布的疾病地图或图谱中获取更多见解来拓宽研究范围。本研究提出了一种分层贝叶斯荟萃分析模型,用于分析在线图谱中的点估计值和区间估计值。通过对作为在线澳大利亚癌症图谱(ACA)一部分的已发布癌症发病率估计值进行建模,对所提出的模型进行了说明。所提出的模型旨在揭示ACA中包含的20种癌症在主要城市、地区和偏远地区的发病率模式。使用从2148个小区域中每个区域的癌症发病率单位层面数据创建的观测区域数据对模型结果进行了验证。结果发现,与通过观测数据分析已知或揭示的模式相比,荟萃分析模型可以根据小区域的城乡状况生成相似的癌症发病率模式。所提出的方法可以推广到其他在线疾病地图和图谱。