在全球效益成本分析中评估死亡率风险降低情况。

Valuing Mortality Risk Reductions in Global Benefit-Cost Analysis.

作者信息

Robinson Lisa A, Hammitt James K, O'Keeffe Lucy

机构信息

Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Center for Health Decision Science and Center for Risk Analysis, 718 Huntington Avenue, Boston, Massachusetts 02115, USA.

Toulouse School of Economics, Université Toulouse Capitole, 21, allée de Brienne, 31000 Toulouse, France.

出版信息

J Benefit Cost Anal. 2019;10(Suppl 1):15-50. doi: 10.1017/bca.2018.26. Epub 2019 Jan 15.

Abstract

The estimates used to value mortality risk reductions are a major determinant of the benefits of many public health and environmental policies. These estimates (typically expressed as the value per statistical life, VSL) describe the willingness of those affected by a policy to exchange their own income for the risk reductions they experience. While these values are relatively well studied in high-income countries, less is known about the values held by lower-income populations. We identify 26 studies conducted in the 172 countries considered low- or middle-income in any of the past 20 years; several have significant limitations. Thus there are few or no direct estimates of VSL for most such countries. Instead, analysts typically extrapolate values from wealthier countries, adjusting only for income differences. This extrapolation requires selecting a base value and an income elasticity that summarizes the rate at which VSL changes with income. Because any such approach depends on assumptions of uncertain validity, we recommend that analysts conduct a standardized sensitivity analysis to assess the extent to which their conclusions change depending on these estimates. In the longer term, more research on the value of mortality risk reductions in low- and middle-income countries is essential.

摘要

用于评估降低死亡风险价值的估计值是许多公共卫生和环境政策效益的主要决定因素。这些估计值(通常表示为统计生命价值,VSL)描述了受政策影响的人们愿意用自己的收入来换取他们所经历的风险降低。虽然这些价值在高收入国家得到了相对充分的研究,但对于低收入人群所持有价值的了解较少。我们识别出在过去20年中任何时候被视为低收入或中等收入的172个国家中进行的26项研究;其中几项存在重大局限性。因此,对于大多数此类国家,几乎没有或根本没有VSL的直接估计值。相反,分析人员通常从较富裕国家推断价值,仅针对收入差异进行调整。这种推断需要选择一个基础值和一个收入弹性,该弹性总结了VSL随收入变化的速率。由于任何此类方法都依赖于有效性不确定的假设,我们建议分析人员进行标准化的敏感性分析,以评估其结论根据这些估计值变化的程度。从长远来看,对低收入和中等收入国家降低死亡风险价值进行更多研究至关重要。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/29d5/7473065/98c5480f3bdd/BCA-2018-bca.2018.26-g001.jpg

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