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中国 COVID-19 疫情爆发的传播趋势:使用空间异质 SEIQR 模型中的指数吸引子方法。

Spread trend of COVID-19 epidemic outbreak in China: using exponential attractor method in a spatial heterogeneous SEIQR model.

机构信息

School of Science, Jiangnan University, Wuxi, Jiangsu 214122, China.

School of Mathematics and Statistics, Jiangsu Normal University, Xuzhou, Jiangsu 221116, China.

出版信息

Math Biosci Eng. 2020 Apr 13;17(4):3062-3087. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2020174.

Abstract

In this paper we introduce a method of global exponential attractor in the reaction-diffusion epidemic model in spatial heterogeneous environment to study the spread trend and long-term dynamic behavior of the COVID-19 epidemic. First, we prove the existence of the global exponential attractor of general dissipative evolution systems. Then, by using the existence theorem, the global asymptotic stability and the persistence of epidemic are discussed. Finally, combine with the official data of the COVID-19 and the national control strategy, some numerical simulations on the stability and global exponential attractiveness of the COVID-19 epidemic are given. Simulations show that the spread trend of the epidemic is in line with our theoretical results, and the preventive measures taken by the Chinese government are effective.

摘要

本文引入了一种在空间异质环境下反应扩散传染病模型中的全局指数吸引子方法,以研究 COVID-19 传染病的传播趋势和长期动态行为。首先,我们证明了广义耗散演化系统全局指数吸引子的存在性。然后,利用存在定理讨论了传染病的全局渐近稳定性和持久性。最后,结合 COVID-19 的官方数据和国家控制策略,对 COVID-19 传染病的稳定性和全局指数吸引性进行了数值模拟。模拟结果表明,传染病的传播趋势与我们的理论结果相符,中国政府采取的预防措施是有效的。

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