State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, No. 19, Xinjiekouwai Street, Haidian District, Beijing, 100875, China.
Institute of Environmental Risk & Damages Assessment, Guangdong Provincial Academy of Environmental Science, Guangzhou, 510045, China.
J Environ Manage. 2021 Jan 1;277:111481. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.111481. Epub 2020 Oct 8.
Most heavy metal exposure and pollution results from multiple industrial activities, including metal processing in refineries, and microelectronics. These issues pose a great threat to human health, ecological balance, and even societal stability. During 2012-2017, China, in particular, faced the challenge of 23 heavy metals accidents, six of which were extraordinarily serious accidents. Accidental environmental pollution is rarely caused by a single heavy metal, but rather by heavy metal mixtures. To address the need for a joint exposure risk assessment for heavy metal mixed pollution accidents at the watershed scale, a Copula-based exposure risk dynamic simulation model was proposed. A coupled hydrodynamic and accidental heavy metal exposure model is constructed for an hourly simulation of the exposure fate of heavy metals from each risk source once accidental leakage has occurred. The Copula analysis was introduced to calculate the dual heavy metal joint exposure probability in real time. This method was applied to an acute Cr-Hg joint exposure risk assessment for 43 electroplating plants in nine sub-watersheds within the Dongjiang River downstream basin. The results indicated seven risk sources (i.e., S1, S4, H18, H23, H27-H28, and H34) that presented relatively high exposure risk to their surrounding sub-watersheds. Spatially, the acute exposure risk level was highest in the tributary basin (sub-watershed XW) than in the mainstream (sub-watershed DW2) and the river network (sub-watershed RW) of the lower reaches of the Dongjiang River. This research highlights an effective probabilistic approach for performing a joint exposure risk analysis of heavy metal mixed pollution accidents at the watershed scale.
大多数重金属暴露和污染源于多种工业活动，包括精炼厂的金属加工和微电子。这些问题对人类健康、生态平衡甚至社会稳定构成了巨大威胁。2012 年至 2017 年期间，中国尤其面临 23 起重金属事故的挑战，其中 6 起是特别严重的事故。意外的环境污染很少是由单一重金属引起的，而是由重金属混合物引起的。为了应对流域尺度重金属混合污染事故联合暴露风险评估的需要，提出了基于 Copula 的暴露风险动态模拟模型。构建了一个耦合水动力和意外重金属暴露模型，用于在每个风险源发生意外泄漏后，对每个风险源的重金属暴露命运进行每小时模拟。引入 Copula 分析来实时计算双重重金属联合暴露概率。该方法应用于东江下游流域 9 个子流域内 43 家电镀厂的急性 Cr-Hg 联合暴露风险评估。结果表明，有七个风险源（即 S1、S4、H18、H23、H27-H28 和 H34）对其周围子流域的暴露风险较高。空间上，东江下游支流流域（子流域 XW）的急性暴露风险水平高于主流域（子流域 DW2）和河网（子流域 RW）。本研究突出了一种在流域尺度上进行重金属混合污染事故联合暴露风险分析的有效概率方法。
