University of Oxford.
Northwestern University.
Popul Stud (Camb). 2020 Nov;74(3):331-350. doi: 10.1080/00324728.2020.1819551. Epub 2020 Oct 13.
In spite of the vast importance of weather shocks for population processes, limited work has investigated the micro-level processes through which weather shocks influence the transition to adulthood in low-income contexts. This paper provides a conceptual overview and empirical investigation of how weather shocks impact the timing, sequencing, and characteristics of young women's life course transitions in low-income rural settings. Drawing on the case of Malawi, we combine repeated cross-sections of georeferenced Demographic and Health Survey data with georeferenced climate and crop calendar data to assess how growing-season drought shocks affect young women's life course transitions. Discrete-time event history analyses indicate that in this context, exposure to growing-season drought in adolescence has an accelerating effect on young women's transitions into first unions-both marriage and cohabitation-and into first births within unions.
尽管天气冲击对人口过程至关重要,但很少有研究探讨微观层面的过程,即天气冲击如何影响低收入背景下的成年过渡。本文提供了一个概念概述和实证研究,探讨了天气冲击如何影响低收入农村环境中年轻女性生活轨迹过渡的时间、顺序和特征。我们以马拉维为例,将经过地理定位的人口与健康调查数据的重复横断面与经过地理定位的气候和作物日历数据相结合,评估了生长季节干旱冲击如何影响年轻女性的生活轨迹过渡。离散时间事件历史分析表明,在这种情况下,青春期暴露于生长季节干旱会加速年轻女性进入第一次婚姻(包括结婚和同居)以及在婚姻内第一次生育的过程。