US Geological Survey, Southeast Climate Adaptation Science Center, Raleigh, NC, USA.
Department of Applied Ecology, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC, USA.
Glob Chang Biol. 2021 Feb;27(4):713-715. doi: 10.1111/gcb.15399. Epub 2020 Oct 31.
Fill et al. (Global Change Biology, 25, 3562-3569, 2019) reported significant increases in dry season length over the past 120 years in the Southeast US, suggesting increased wildfire risk in a region associated with a frequent fire regime. We identified two flaws that call into question the findings and their relevance to regional wildfire risk. First, with the exception of Florida, there is little evidence for a climatologically meaningful 'dry season' in the Southeast because most areas experience relatively evenly distributed monthly precipitation. Second, the sampling method used to derive Cumulative Rainfall Anomalies does not appear to actually reflect a bootstrap sample as described.
菲尔等人(《全球变化生物学》,25,3562-3569,2019 年)报告称,过去 120 年来美国东南部的旱季长度显著增加,这表明在一个与频繁火灾制度相关的地区,野火风险增加。我们发现了两个缺陷,这些缺陷对研究结果及其与该地区野火风险的相关性提出了质疑。首先,除了佛罗里达州之外,东南部地区几乎没有气候意义上的“旱季”的证据,因为大多数地区的月降水量分布相对均匀。其次,用于推导累积降水异常的抽样方法似乎并没有实际反映出所描述的自举抽样。