Department of Environmental Sciences, Jahangirnagar University, Dhaka, 1342, Bangladesh.
Climate Change Programme, BRAC, Bangladesh.
Environ Res. 2021 Jan;192:110303. doi: 10.1016/j.envres.2020.110303. Epub 2020 Oct 16.
Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change impacts also struck by the COVID-19 pandemic. The lockdown measures were ineffective with no sign of flattening the curve. Therefore, the high risk of transmission is evident with an increasing number of affected people. Under this circumstance, a multiple hazards scenario can be developed in this country due to climatic hazards such as cyclones, floods, landslides, heat waves, and the outbreak of infectious diseases such as dengue, cholera, and diarrhoea. The country experiences simultaneously the global pandemic, exceptionally prolonged flood along with the recovery stage from the damages due to the cyclone (Amphan). Therefore, these multiple factors have been putting pressure on losing millions of homes, livelihoods, and agricultural crops. This study aimed to assess the potential impact of a simultaneous strike of climatic hazards and infectious disease outbreaks and their possible strategic management in Bangladesh under different scenarios. A mixed methodological approach was followed in this study including a questionnaire survey, in-depth discussion with experts, and extensive literature review to assess the multi-hazard scenario in a resource-limited setting with high population density. A set of statistical techniques were used to analyze the responses (n = 1590) from different social groups (healthcare professionals, academicians, students, Government and NGO officials, and businessman) under three scenarios. The results revealed the high possibility of aggravating the impact of COVID-19 pandemic if there is a climatic hazard such as flood, cyclone have appeared. The majority of the respondents agreed that the situation will become more devastating if there is another outbreak of diseases such as dengue, cholera, and diarrhoea. The poor and fragile healthcare system of this country cannot bear such unprecedented pressure. The lack of risk assessment and communication, lack of sectoral coordination might restrict the contingency plan of the government. Therefore, considering the unprecedented worst cases a stringent strategic plan for emergency response, short term and long-term management should have to be formulated. Resilience building through proactive planning and implementation of integrated, inclusive and sustainable strategies will be effective to ensure the health and socio-economic security for multi-hazard threats in the country.
孟加拉国是受气候变化影响最脆弱的国家之一，同时也遭受了 COVID-19 大流行的冲击。封锁措施无效，没有出现曲线变平的迹象。因此，随着受感染人数的增加，传播的高风险是显而易见的。在这种情况下，由于气旋、洪水、山体滑坡、热浪等气候危害以及登革热、霍乱和腹泻等传染病的爆发，这个国家可能会出现多种灾害情景。该国同时经历着全球大流行，异常长时间的洪水以及气旋（Amphan）造成的破坏的恢复阶段。因此，这些多种因素给失去数以百万计的家园、生计和农作物带来了压力。本研究旨在评估在不同情景下，孟加拉国同时遭受气候危害和传染病爆发的潜在影响及其可能的战略管理。本研究采用了混合方法，包括问卷调查、与专家的深入讨论和广泛的文献综述，以评估资源有限、人口密度高的国家的多灾害情景。使用了一组统计技术来分析来自不同社会群体（卫生保健专业人员、学者、学生、政府和非政府组织官员以及商人）的 1590 个答复。结果表明，如果出现洪水、气旋等气候灾害，COVID-19 大流行的影响很可能会加剧。大多数受访者认为，如果登革热、霍乱和腹泻等疾病再次爆发，情况将更加严重。这个国家脆弱的医疗保健系统无法承受如此前所未有的压力。风险评估和沟通的缺乏、部门协调的缺乏可能会限制政府的应急计划。因此，考虑到前所未有的最坏情况，必须制定严格的应急响应战略计划、短期和长期管理计划。通过积极主动的规划和实施综合、包容和可持续的战略来建立复原力，将有效地确保该国应对多种灾害威胁的健康和社会经济安全。
