Zhang Y W, Li H, Duan D H, Han L Y, Liu S W
Panjin Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Panjin 124010, China.
Ningbo Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Ningbo 315010, China.
Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi. 2020 Sep 10;41(9):1487-1493. doi: 10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20191101-00774.
To compare the indicators of non-communicable diseases (NCD) and predict the achieving time of United Nations (UN) Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) in 125 countries participating in the Belt and Road (B&R) initiative and China. Using the open access data of Global Burden of Disease study, we first got the premature mortality rates of four main chronic diseases (cardiovascular disease, cancer, diabetes and chronic respiratory diseases) and suicide mortality rate in the 126 countries from1990 to 2017. We transformed the value of each indicator into a scale of 0-100 in percentile for each country and applied geometric mean to calculate total NCD score for comparison among 126 countries. We then examined the association of NCD scores with socio-demographic index (SDI) values. Finally, we used annualized rates of change during 1990-2015 to predict achieving time of the UN goal by 2030 for each indicator of chronic diseases premature mortality rate and suicide mortality rates in each B&R country. The integral median of total NCD score in the 126 countries in 2017 was 82.7. The score of China was 87.6, ranking 33(rd). The top three countries were Kuwait (98.1), Peru (97.5) and Italy (96.0). The last three countries were Papua New Guinea (28.9), Vanuatu (54.7) and Ukraine (58.0). The total NCD score showed positive correlation with SDI values (=0.33) mainly due to chronic disease indicator (=0.45). Fifteen countries will achieve the SDG goal of chronic disease premature mortality in or before 2030, but China will achieve it in 2038. Fifteen countries are expected to achieve the goal of suicide mortality, and China will acheive the goal ahead of schedule in 2024. The NCD rates varied widely among the countries along B&R. It is a challenge to achieve the SDG goal of chronic disease premature mortality rate by 2030 for China. In order to achieve the SDG goals by 2030, we should strengthen multilateral cooperation and complement each other's advantages, and reduce NCD mortality of people and improve people's health in countries along B&R.
比较125个参与“一带一路”倡议的国家和中国的非传染性疾病（NCD）指标，并预测联合国（UN）可持续发展目标（SDG）的实现时间。利用全球疾病负担研究的开放获取数据，我们首先获取了1990年至2017年126个国家四种主要慢性病（心血管疾病、癌症、糖尿病和慢性呼吸道疾病）的过早死亡率和自杀死亡率。我们将每个指标的值转换为每个国家0至100的百分位数尺度，并应用几何平均数来计算126个国家的非传染性疾病总得分以进行比较。然后，我们研究了非传染性疾病得分与社会人口指数（SDI）值之间的关联。最后，我们使用1990年至2015年期间的年化变化率来预测每个“一带一路”国家慢性病过早死亡率和自杀死亡率各指标到2030年实现联合国目标的时间。2017年126个国家非传染性疾病总得分的积分中位数为82.7。中国的得分为87.6，排名第33位。排名前三的国家是科威特（98.1）、秘鲁（97.5）和意大利（96.0）。排名最后的三个国家是巴布亚新几内亚（28.9）、瓦努阿图（54.7）和乌克兰（58.0）。非传染性疾病总得分与SDI值呈正相关（=0.33），主要是由于慢性病指标（=0.45）。15个国家将在2030年或之前实现慢性病过早死亡的可持续发展目标，但中国将在2038年实现。预计15个国家将实现自杀死亡率目标，而中国将在2024年提前实现该目标。“一带一路”沿线国家的非传染性疾病发病率差异很大。对中国来说，到2030年实现慢性病过早死亡率的可持续发展目标是一项挑战。为了在2030年实现可持续发展目标，我们应加强多边合作、优势互补，降低“一带一路”沿线国家人群的非传染性疾病死亡率，改善人民健康。
