Zhang Tenghao
School of Business and Law, Edith Cowan University, 270 Joondalup Drive, Joondalup, WA 6027 Australia.
Scientometrics. 2021;126(1):863-869. doi: 10.1007/s11192-020-03736-7. Epub 2020 Oct 14.
In the wake of the unprecedented global scientific output boom, are top-tier journals such as the FT50 journals following suit? If these prestigious journals consistently increase their publication volumes, will their impact factors be affected? Drawing on the Mann-Kendall trend test method, this study analysed time series trends of the FT50 journals' annual publication volumes and impact factor ratios (IFR) over a 15 year period. The results indicate that half of the FT50 journals have consistently increased their publication volumes over the years. Although to increase publication volumes is riskier than to stay put, it has a significantly higher probability of increasing the IFR, and therefore keeping pace with other top journals. However, the expanding of publication volumes must be carried out cautiously, as the study also finds that growing too fast may lead to opposite effects.
在全球科学产出出现前所未有的繁荣之后，诸如FT50期刊之类的顶级期刊是否也在跟风？如果这些享有盛誉的期刊持续增加其发表量，它们的影响因子会受到影响吗？本研究采用曼-肯德尔趋势检验方法，分析了FT50期刊在15年期间的年发表量和影响因子比率（IFR）的时间序列趋势。结果表明，多年来FT50期刊中有一半持续增加其发表量。尽管增加发表量比维持现状风险更大，但它提高IFR的概率显著更高，从而能与其他顶级期刊保持同步。然而，发表量的扩大必须谨慎进行，因为该研究还发现增长过快可能会导致相反的效果。
