Seed Rain, Soil Seed Bank, and Seedling Emergence Indicate Limited Potential for Self-Recovery in a Highly Disturbed, Tropical, Mixed Deciduous Forest.

Human activity negatively affects the sustainability of forest ecosystems globally. Disturbed forests may or may not recover by themselves in a certain period of time. However, it is still unclear as to what parameters can be used to reasonably predict the potential for self-recovery of human-disturbed forests. Here, we combined seed rain, soil seed bank, and seed emergence experiments to evaluate the potential for self-recovery of a highly disturbed, tropical, mixed deciduous forest in northeastern Thailand. Our results show a limited potential for self-recovery of this forest due to low seedling input and storage and an extremely high mortality rate during the drought period. There were 15 tree species of seedlings present during the regeneration period in comparison with a total number of 56 tree species in current standing vegetation. During the dry season, only four tree seedling species survived, and the highest mortality rate reached 83.87%. We also found that the correspondence between the combined number of species and composition of plant communities obtained from seed rain, soil seed bank, and seedling emergence experiments and the standing vegetation was poor. We clearly show the temporal dynamics of the seed rain and seedling communities, which are driven by different plant reproductive phenology and dispersal mechanisms, and drought coupled with mortality. We conclude that this highly disturbed forest needs a management plan and could not recover by itself in a short period of time. We recommend the use of external seed and seedling supplies and the maintenance of soil water content (i.e., shading) during periods of drought in order to help increase seedling abundances and species richness, and to reduce the mortality rate.