Topan Ligia, Castro César, Jerez Miguel, Barge-Gil Andrés
Department of Economic Analysis and Quantitative Economics, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Madrid, Spain.
Department of Economics, Universidad Pública de Navarra, Pamplona, Spain.
SERIEs (Berl). 2020;11(4):561-583. doi: 10.1007/s13209-020-00222-4. Epub 2020 Oct 20.
Oil price showed sharp fluctuations in recent years which revived the interest in its effect on inflation. In this paper, we discuss the relationship between oil price and inflation in Spain, at national and regional levels, and making the distinction between energy and non-energy inflation. To this end, we fit econometric models to measure the effect of oil price shocks on inflation and to predict them under different scenarios. Our results show that almost half of the volatility of changes in total inflation is explained by changes in oil price. As could be expected, the energy component of inflation drives this effect. We also find that, under the most likely scenarios, 1-year ahead total inflation will be moderate, with relevant differences across regions.
近年来，油价出现剧烈波动，这重新引发了人们对其对通胀影响的兴趣。在本文中，我们探讨了西班牙国内和地区层面油价与通胀之间的关系，并区分了能源通胀和非能源通胀。为此，我们拟合了计量经济模型，以衡量油价冲击对通胀的影响，并在不同情景下对其进行预测。我们的结果表明，总通胀变化的近一半波动可由油价变化来解释。正如预期的那样，通胀的能源成分推动了这一效应。我们还发现，在最有可能的情景下，未来一年的总通胀将较为温和，各地区存在显著差异。
