Brugnago Eduardo L, Gallas Jason A C, Beims Marcus W
Departamento de Física, Universidade Federal do Paraná, 81531-980 Curitiba, Brazil.
Max Planck Institute for the Physics of Complex Systems, Nöthnitzer Str. 38, 01187 Dresden, Germany.
Chaos. 2020 Oct;30(10):103109. doi: 10.1063/5.0013253.
We show that a characteristic alignment between Lyapunov vectors can be used to predict regime changes as well as regime duration in the classical Lorenz model of atmospheric convection. By combining Lyapunov vector alignment with maxima in the local expansion of bred vectors, we obtain an effective and competitive method to significantly decrease errors in the prediction of regime durations.
我们表明，在大气对流的经典洛伦兹模型中，李雅普诺夫向量之间的特征排列可用于预测状态变化以及状态持续时间。通过将李雅普诺夫向量排列与繁殖向量局部展开中的最大值相结合，我们获得了一种有效且有竞争力的方法，可显著降低状态持续时间预测中的误差。
