Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France.
French National Public Health Agency, Santé Publique France, Saint-Maurice, France.
J Expo Sci Environ Epidemiol. 2021 Jul;31(4):769-776. doi: 10.1038/s41370-020-00272-7. Epub 2020 Nov 3.
BACKGROUND: Existing methods to estimate lifetime exposure to occupational carcinogenic agents could be improved. OBJECTIVE: We propose a new method to estimate the lifetime prevalence of exposure to occupational carcinogens using the example of painters and workers of the rubber industry in France. METHODS: From census, we calculated the proportion of painters and rubber industry workers using predefined occupational codes related to each occupation by sex and 10-year age group in 1982, 1990, 1999, 2007, and 2013. Using a beta-regression model, we obtained the yearly prevalence of exposure by 10-year age group over the period 1967-2007. We estimated the age- and sex-specific lifetime prevalence of exposure of the population in 2017 over 1967-2007, summing up the estimated prevalence of exposure for years 1967, 1977, 1987, 1997, and 2007 combined with a sex- and age-specific turnover factor. Corresponding population-attributable fractions were estimated for lung and bladder cancers in 2017. RESULTS: In 2017, we estimated that 5.6 and 0.2% of men in France had ever worked as a painter or in the rubber industry, respectively, during their working time. The lifetime prevalence of ever having worked as a painter or in the rubber industry was much lower in women: 1.8% and 0.1%, respectively. We estimated that 950 lung cancer and 40 bladder cancer cases were attributable to these occupations in 2017. SIGNIFICANCE: Based on accurate data and taking into account evolution of specific jobs over time, the proposed method provides good estimates of lifetime prevalence of exposure to occupational carcinogens. It could be applied in any other country with similar data.
背景:现有的职业致癌剂终生暴露评估方法可以得到改进。
目的:我们提出了一种新的方法,以估计职业致癌剂终生暴露的流行率,以法国的油漆工和橡胶行业工人为例。
方法:我们从人口普查中计算出 1982 年、1990 年、1999 年、2007 年和 2013 年按性别和 10 年年龄组划分的与每个职业相关的油漆工和橡胶行业工人的比例。使用贝塔回归模型,我们获得了 1967 年至 2007 年期间每个 10 年年龄组的年度暴露流行率。我们通过将 1967 年、1977 年、1987 年、1997 年和 2007 年的估计暴露流行率相加,并结合性别和年龄特定的人员流动因素,估计了 2017 年人口在 1967 年至 2007 年期间的特定年龄和性别的终生暴露流行率。我们还估计了 2017 年肺癌和膀胱癌的相应人群归因分数。
结果:我们估计,2017 年,法国有 5.6%的男性和 0.2%的男性曾经从事过油漆工或橡胶行业的工作。在女性中,作为油漆工或橡胶行业工人的终生暴露流行率要低得多:分别为 1.8%和 0.1%。我们估计,2017 年有 950 例肺癌和 40 例膀胱癌归因于这些职业。
意义:基于准确的数据,并考虑到特定职业随时间的演变,该方法提供了职业致癌剂终生暴露流行率的良好估计。它可以应用于任何其他具有类似数据的国家。
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