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撒哈拉以南非洲地区新冠疫情的经济成本:来自加纳模拟分析的见解

The Economic Costs of COVID-19 in Sub-Saharan Africa: Insights from a Simulation Exercise for Ghana.

作者信息

Amewu Sena, Asante Seth, Pauw Karl, Thurlow James

机构信息

International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC USA.

出版信息

Eur J Dev Res. 2020;32(5):1353-1378. doi: 10.1057/s41287-020-00332-6. Epub 2020 Oct 30.


DOI:10.1057/s41287-020-00332-6
PMID:33144762
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7596625/
Abstract

Globally, countries have resorted to social distancing, travel restrictions and economic lockdowns to reduce transmission of COVID-19. The socioeconomic costs of these blunt measures are expected to be high, especially in sub-Saharan Africa where many live hand-to-mouth and lack social safety nets. Social Accounting Matrix multiplier model results show that Ghana's urban lockdown, although in force for only three weeks in April 2020, has likely caused GDP to fall by 27.9% during that period, while an additional 3.8 million Ghanaians temporarily became poor. Compared to the government's revised GDP growth rate of 1.5% for 2020, the model predicts a contraction of 0.6 to 6.3% for 2020, depending on the speed of the recovery. The US$200 million budgeted for Ghana's Coronavirus Alleviation Program will close only a small part of the estimated US$ 2.3 billion GDP gap between the fast recovery scenario and government's revised GDP trajectory.

摘要

在全球范围内,各国纷纷采取社交距离措施、旅行限制和经济封锁来减少新冠病毒的传播。这些生硬措施的社会经济成本预计会很高,尤其是在撒哈拉以南非洲地区,那里许多人仅够维持生计,且缺乏社会安全网。社会核算矩阵乘数模型结果显示,加纳的城市封锁尽管在2020年4月仅实施了三周,但在此期间可能已导致国内生产总值下降27.9%,同时又有380万加纳人暂时陷入贫困。与政府修订后的2020年国内生产总值增长率1.5%相比,该模型预测2020年将收缩0.6%至6.3%,具体取决于经济复苏的速度。为加纳冠状病毒缓解计划预算的2亿美元仅能填补快速复苏情景与政府修订后的国内生产总值轨迹之间估计23亿美元国内生产总值差距的一小部分。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3c3c/7596625/d6faf3ce99a9/41287_2020_332_Fig11_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3c3c/7596625/36b57de49cfa/41287_2020_332_Fig1_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3c3c/7596625/53794e836870/41287_2020_332_Fig2_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3c3c/7596625/d38230e38131/41287_2020_332_Fig3_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3c3c/7596625/b4d937c75e60/41287_2020_332_Fig4_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3c3c/7596625/44ec650e886a/41287_2020_332_Fig5_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3c3c/7596625/5eca2ebda7a7/41287_2020_332_Fig6_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3c3c/7596625/4389bfad2973/41287_2020_332_Fig7_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3c3c/7596625/0f7499d487ee/41287_2020_332_Fig8_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3c3c/7596625/4fecf632554d/41287_2020_332_Fig9_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3c3c/7596625/b377b5ff1ac3/41287_2020_332_Fig10_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3c3c/7596625/d6faf3ce99a9/41287_2020_332_Fig11_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3c3c/7596625/36b57de49cfa/41287_2020_332_Fig1_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3c3c/7596625/53794e836870/41287_2020_332_Fig2_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3c3c/7596625/d38230e38131/41287_2020_332_Fig3_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3c3c/7596625/b4d937c75e60/41287_2020_332_Fig4_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3c3c/7596625/44ec650e886a/41287_2020_332_Fig5_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3c3c/7596625/5eca2ebda7a7/41287_2020_332_Fig6_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3c3c/7596625/4389bfad2973/41287_2020_332_Fig7_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3c3c/7596625/0f7499d487ee/41287_2020_332_Fig8_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3c3c/7596625/4fecf632554d/41287_2020_332_Fig9_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3c3c/7596625/b377b5ff1ac3/41287_2020_332_Fig10_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3c3c/7596625/d6faf3ce99a9/41287_2020_332_Fig11_HTML.jpg

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