School of Management and Economics, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing, 100081, China.
Sustainable Development Research Institute for Economy and Society of Beijing, Beijing, 100081, China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2021 Mar;28(11):13469-13486. doi: 10.1007/s11356-020-11429-0. Epub 2020 Nov 12.
Electricity generation is the largest sector with decarbonization potential for China and the world. Based on the new emission factors, this paper aims to identify the structural and technological determinants of provincial carbon intensity in the electricity generation sector (CIE) using the multiplicative LMDI-II method. Results demonstrate that (1) China's overall CIE decreases by 7.3% in 2001-2015, and the research period can be divided into four stages according to CIE changes (i.e., rapid growth, rapid decline, slow growth, and transition). The CIE in the 12th FYP estimated in this paper, 24.9% lower than that using the emission factors from IPCC, is closer to China's actual situation. (2) There exists huge heterogeneity in the determinants of provincial CIE changes in four stages. CIE growth in the Northwest and Northeast is caused by the coal-dominated energy structure. CIE growth in the Southwest is attributed to the electricity structure effect, while that of the Coast region is caused by the geographic distribution effect. The electricity efficiency effect is attributed to the CIE growth for these regions and the Southwest should also place focus on the electricity trade effect. The impact of electricity trade-related factors depends on the region being a net exporter or importer of electricity. (3) To achieve carbon intensity reduction targets, 30 provinces are categorized into four types based on various combinations of structural and technological determinants. The findings provide insights into capturing future emission-mitigating focus as well as defining the emission-mitigating responsibilities between electricity exporters and importers in China.
发电是中国乃至全球减排潜力最大的部门。基于新的排放因子，本文采用乘法型 LMDI-II 方法，旨在识别发电部门碳强度（CIE）的结构和技术决定因素。结果表明：（1）中国的整体 CIE 在 2001-2015 年下降了 7.3%，研究期间可根据 CIE 变化分为四个阶段（即快速增长、快速下降、缓慢增长和转型）。本文估计的第十二个五年规划期间的 CIE 为 24.9%，低于使用 IPCC 排放因子的结果，更接近中国的实际情况。（2）四个阶段中省级 CIE 变化的决定因素存在巨大差异。西北和东北地区 CIE 的增长是由煤炭主导的能源结构造成的。西南地区 CIE 的增长归因于电力结构效应，而沿海地区则归因于地理分布效应。电力效率效应是造成这些地区 CIE 增长的原因，而西南地区还应重视电力贸易效应。电力贸易相关因素的影响取决于该地区是电力净出口国还是进口国。（3）为了实现碳强度减排目标，根据结构和技术决定因素的不同组合，将 30 个省份分为四类。研究结果为确定未来减排重点以及明确中国电力出口国和进口国之间的减排责任提供了参考。
