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土壤侵蚀潜在不确定性对放射性铯在吾妻川流域环境归宿数值模拟的影响。

Impact of soil erosion potential uncertainties on numerical simulations of the environmental fate of radiocesium in the Abukuma River basin.

机构信息

Japan Atomic Energy Agency, 2-4 Shirakata, Tokai-mura, Naka-gun, Ibaraki, 319-1195, Japan.

Osaka University, 2-1 Yamadaoka, Suita, Osaka, 565-0871, Japan.

出版信息

J Environ Radioact. 2020 Dec;225:106452. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvrad.2020.106452. Epub 2020 Nov 10.

Abstract

The Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant accident in March 2011 resulted in the deposition of significant quantities of radionuclides, including radiocesium (Cs), over a wide area. Most of the deposited Cs is strongly adsorbed on fine soil particles such as clay and silt near the ground surface. Therefore, to estimate the environmental fate of Cs, it is necessary to predict its transport with eroded sediment in rainfall-runoff processes. In this study, a distributed radiocesium prediction model was applied to simulations of Cs transport associated with hydrological processes in the Abukuma River Basin, the largest river system in Fukushima, over the period of 2011-2012. The soil erosion potential, which is a key input to the distributed radiocesium prediction model, was estimated using the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE). This study focused on the uncertainty in estimating the environmental fate of Cs associated with the USLE factors. The USLE has five physically meaningful factors: the rainfall and runoff factor (R), soil erodibility factor (K), topographic factor (LS), cover and management factor (C), and support practice factor (P). Because the USLE factors were determined using various methods, R, LS, and the product of C and P (C×P) were divided into two, three, and five cases, respectively, based on previous studies. Therefore, we conducted 30 different simulations. The average total Cs outflow during the computational period in the simulation cases using the same USLE factors was 13.3 and 11.7 TBq for R (two cases), 12.6, 13.9 and 10.9 TBq for LS (three cases), and 26.5, 8.64, 0.47, 22.8 and 4.03 TBq for C×P (five cases). For the total outflow, C and P had the highest uncertainty of all the USLE factors. The outflow rates of the average total Cs in the simulation cases using the same C and P from the croplands and forest areas and from the undisturbed croplands and paddy fields were 62-91% and 18-34%, respectively. These results were due to the high erodibility of the croplands, the large forest areas in grids with high Cs deposition density, and the high concentration of Cs in the soil of the undisturbed croplands and paddy fields. This study indicates that land use, especially forest areas, croplands, and undisturbed paddy fields, has a significant impact on the environmental fate of Cs.

摘要

2011 年 3 月福岛第一核电站事故导致大量放射性核素(包括放射性铯)在广大地区沉积。大部分沉积的 Cs 强烈吸附在地表附近的细土颗粒上,如粘土和粉土。因此,为了估计 Cs 的环境归宿,有必要预测其在降雨径流过程中随侵蚀泥沙的输运。本研究应用分布式放射性铯预测模型对 2011-2012 年福岛最大河流系统阿武隈河流域与水文过程相关的 Cs 输运进行了模拟。土壤侵蚀潜力是分布式放射性铯预测模型的关键输入,使用通用土壤流失方程(USLE)进行估算。本研究重点关注与 USLE 因子相关的 Cs 环境归宿估计中的不确定性。USLE 有五个具有物理意义的因子:降雨和径流因子(R)、土壤可蚀性因子(K)、地形因子(LS)、覆盖和管理因子(C)以及支持实践因子(P)。由于 USLE 因子是使用各种方法确定的,因此 R、LS 和 C×P(C×P)的乘积分别根据以往研究分为两类、三类和五类。因此,我们进行了 30 种不同的模拟。在使用相同 USLE 因子的模拟案例中,计算期内总 Cs 流出量的平均值分别为 13.3 和 11.7 TBq(两种情况)、12.6、13.9 和 10.9 TBq(三种情况)、26.5、8.64、0.47、22.8 和 4.03 TBq(五种情况)。对于总流出量,C 和 P 是所有 USLE 因子中不确定性最高的。来自耕地和森林地区以及未扰动耕地和稻田的平均总 Cs 流出率分别为 62-91%和 18-34%。这些结果是由于耕地的高可蚀性、高 Cs 沉积密度网格中的大面积森林以及未扰动耕地和稻田中高浓度的 Cs 所致。本研究表明,土地利用,特别是森林地区、耕地和未扰动的稻田,对 Cs 的环境归宿有重大影响。

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