Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna di Pisa, Institute of Economics, Piazza dei Martiri della Libertà, 3, 56127, Pisa, Italy.
University of Greenwich, Park Row, SE10 9LS, London, UK.
Soc Sci Med. 2020 Nov;265:113513. doi: 10.1016/j.socscimed.2020.113513. Epub 2020 Nov 11.
The increasing proportion of the population aged 65 or over has generated a global rise of health spending due to higher demand for medical and long-term care services, which has become a growing challenge to the sustainability of public finances across countries. This phenomenon is especially prominent in China, which has experienced accelerated rates of both economic growth and population ageing over the past four decades. Using Bayesian-VAR (B-VAR) models we compute the impulse response functions (IRFs) and the forecast error variance decomposition functions (FEVDs) to empirically examine the dynamic relationships between ageing index, life expectancy, economic growth and health expenditure in China. We compare China with the USA which has distinct trajectories of population structure and economic development to better understand the former's dynamic patterns. We find a pronounced response for both the USA and China of ageing index to life expectancy and of health spending per capita to GDP per capita, while ageing population induces a relatively strong reaction from health expenditure per capita in China. Our results are robust with either nominal or real variables. These findings suggest that, in China, a well-rounded policy accommodating economic, social and health factors is needed to improve the quality of life of the ageing population for a sustainable development of the economy.
由于对医疗和长期护理服务的需求增加，65 岁及以上人口的比例不断增加，导致全球医疗支出增加，这对各国公共财政的可持续性构成了越来越大的挑战。这种现象在中国尤为突出，中国在过去四十年中经历了经济增长和人口老龄化的加速。我们使用贝叶斯向量自回归（B-VAR）模型计算脉冲响应函数（IRFs）和预测误差方差分解函数（FEVDs），以实证检验中国人口老龄化指数、预期寿命、经济增长和医疗支出之间的动态关系。我们将中国与美国进行比较，美国的人口结构和经济发展轨迹截然不同，以便更好地了解前者的动态模式。我们发现，美国和中国的人口老龄化指数对预期寿命、人均医疗支出对人均 GDP 的反应都很明显，而人口老龄化对中国的人均医疗支出反应较强。无论使用名义变量还是实际变量，我们的结果都是稳健的。这些发现表明，在中国，需要制定全面的政策，兼顾经济、社会和健康因素，提高老龄化人口的生活质量，实现经济的可持续发展。
