School of Ecosystem and Forest Sciences, Faculty of Science, The University of Melbourne, Australia.
School of Ecosystem and Forest Sciences, Faculty of Science, The University of Melbourne, Australia.
Sci Total Environ. 2021 Jan 20;753:142012. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.142012. Epub 2020 Aug 27.
Analysing the climate envelope of plant species has been suggested as a tool to predict the vulnerability of tree species in future urban climates. However, there is little evidence that the climate envelope of a plant species directly relates to the drought and thermal tolerance of that species, at least not at the resolution required to identify or rank species vulnerability. Here, we attempted to predict drought and thermal tolerance of commonly used urban tree species using climate variables derived exclusively from open-source global occurrence data. We quantified three drought and thermal tolerance traits for 43 urban tree species in a common garden experiment: stomatal sensitivity to vapour pressure deficit, leaf water potential at the turgor loss point, and leaf thermal tolerance. We then attempted to predict each tolerance trait from variables derived from the climate envelope of each species, using occurrence data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility. We found no strong relationships between drought and thermal tolerance traits and climatic variables. Across wide environmental gradients, plant tolerance and climate are inherently linked. But our results suggest that climate envelopes determined from species occurrence data alone may not predict drought or thermal tolerance at the resolution required to select tree species for future urban forests. We should focus on identifying the most relevant strategies and traits required to describe tolerance which in combination with climate envelope analysis should ultimately predict growth and mortality of trees in urban landscapes.
分析植物物种的气候范围被认为是预测树种在未来城市气候中脆弱性的一种工具。然而，几乎没有证据表明植物物种的气候范围与其耐旱性和耐热性直接相关，至少在确定或排名物种脆弱性所需的分辨率上没有。在这里，我们试图仅使用来自开源全球出现数据的气候变量来预测常用城市树种的耐旱性和耐热性。我们在一个常见的花园实验中量化了 43 种城市树种的三个耐旱性和耐热性特征：气孔对蒸汽压差的敏感性、膨压点的叶水势和叶耐热性。然后，我们试图从全球生物多样性信息设施的物种出现数据中得出的变量来预测每个耐受特征。我们发现耐旱性和耐热性特征与气候变量之间没有很强的关系。在广泛的环境梯度中，植物的耐受性和气候是内在联系的。但我们的结果表明，仅从物种出现数据确定的气候范围可能无法预测未来城市森林中选择树种所需的耐旱性或耐热性分辨率。我们应该专注于确定描述耐受性所需的最相关策略和特征，这些特征与气候范围分析相结合，最终应该能够预测城市景观中树木的生长和死亡率。
