Moen Phyllis, Pedtke Joseph H, Flood Sarah
Life Course Center, University of Minnesota.
Work Aging Retire. 2020 Oct;6(4):207-228. doi: 10.1093/workar/waaa013. Epub 2020 Sep 12.
These are unprecedented times, as the COVID-19 pandemic disrupts public health, social interaction, and employment attachments. Evidence to date has been about broad shifts in unemployment rates as a percent of the labor force. We draw on monthly Current Population Survey data to examine subpopulation changes in employment states across the life course, from January through April 2020. COVID-19 downturns produced disparate life-course impacts. There are increases in unemployment and being out of the workforce at all ages, but especially among young adults, with young women most at risk. Intersectional analyses document conjoint life-course vulnerabilities by gender, educational attainment, and race/ethnicity. For example, Black men aged 20-29 with a college degree experienced a 12.4 percentage point increase in being not in the labor force for other reasons (NILF-other). Individuals with less than a college degree in their 50s and 60s were more likely to become unemployed, regardless of race. And more non-college-educated Asian men in their 60s and 70s reported being retired (6.6 and 8.9 percentage point increases, respectively). Repercussions from the pandemic may well challenge assumptions and possibilities for older adults' working longer.
当下是前所未有的时期,因为新冠疫情扰乱了公共卫生、社会交往和就业关系。迄今为止的证据都是关于失业率占劳动力总数百分比的总体变化情况。我们利用月度当前人口调查数据,研究了2020年1月至4月不同年龄段就业状况的亚群体变化。新冠疫情导致的经济衰退对人生各阶段产生了不同的影响。各年龄段的失业率和不在劳动力队伍中的人数都有所增加,尤其是在年轻人中,年轻女性面临的风险最大。交叉分析记录了按性别、教育程度和种族/族裔划分的人生各阶段的共同脆弱性。例如,20至29岁拥有大学学位的黑人男性因其他原因不在劳动力队伍中的比例增加了12.4个百分点。50多岁和60多岁学历低于大学的人,无论种族如何,更有可能失业。60多岁和70多岁受教育程度低于大学的亚洲男性中,更多人报告已退休(分别增加了6.6和8.9个百分点)。疫情的影响很可能会挑战老年人延长工作年限的假设和可能性。