Department of Social and Preventive Medicine, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Suwon, Korea.
Epidemiol Health. 2020;42:e2020068. doi: 10.4178/epih.e2020068. Epub 2020 Nov 21.
This study aimed to develop hypotheses on trends in malaria incidence in North Korea using malaria incidence among South Korean visitors to North Korea.
The number of South Korean tourists who visited Mount Kumgang from 2000 to 2008 and the number of South Korean employees at the Kaesong Industrial Complex from 2005 to 2015 were obtained from the Korean Statistical Information Service. The number of malaria cases among South Koreans who visited North Korea was obtained from a previous report. The incidence of malaria per 100,000 person-years was calculated using these data and compared with the malaria incidence in North Korea derived from published articles.
A high incidence of malaria in 2001 and a sharp decline in the following years were observed in both South and North Korean data. Since then, North Korean data showed a relatively low and stable incidence, but the incidence among South Koreans visiting North Korea increased in 2006. Considering the trends in mass primaquine preventive treatment, floods, and economic growth rate, the incidence of malaria may have increased in North Korea in 2006. Since 2009, the incidence of malaria decreased gradually according to both South and North Korean data.
The trends of malaria incidence in North Korea could be reflected through its incidence among South Koreans who visited North Korea. For future inter-Korean collaboration aiming to eradicate malaria, we propose that a North Korean malaria monitoring system be established applying this method.
本研究旨在利用韩国游客在朝鲜的疟疾发病率来推测朝鲜疟疾发病率的变化趋势。
从韩国统计信息服务处获取了 2000 年至 2008 年期间访问金刚山的韩国游客人数,以及 2005 年至 2015 年期间开城工业园区的韩国员工人数。从之前的一份报告中获取了在朝鲜访问的韩国人患疟疾病例的数量。利用这些数据计算每 10 万人年的疟疾发病率,并与从已发表文章中得出的朝鲜疟疾发病率进行比较。
无论是在韩国还是朝鲜的数据中,2001 年疟疾发病率都很高,随后几年急剧下降。此后,朝鲜数据显示发病率相对较低且稳定,但 2006 年访问朝鲜的韩国人发病率有所上升。考虑到大规模磷酸伯氨喹预防性治疗、洪水和经济增长率的趋势,2006 年朝鲜的疟疾发病率可能有所上升。自 2009 年以来,根据韩国和朝鲜的数据,疟疾发病率逐渐下降。
通过访问朝鲜的韩国人疟疾发病率可以反映朝鲜疟疾发病率的变化趋势。为了未来朝韩合作以消除疟疾,我们建议采用这种方法建立朝鲜疟疾监测系统。