Lu Yin, Wetzler Nadav, Waldmann Nicolas, Agnon Amotz, Biasi Glenn P, Marco Shmuel
Department of Geophysics, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv 6997801, Israel.
Dr. Moses Strauss Department of Marine Geosciences, Leon H. Charney School of Marine Sciences, University of Haifa, Mount Carmel 3498838, Israel.
Sci Adv. 2020 Nov 27;6(48). doi: 10.1126/sciadv.aba4170. Print 2020 Nov.
Large earthquakes (magnitude ≥ 7.0) are rare, especially along slow-slipping plate boundaries. Lack of large earthquakes in the instrumental record enlarges uncertainty of the recurrence time; the recurrence of large earthquakes is generally determined by extrapolation according to a magnitude-frequency relation. We enhance the seismological catalog of the Dead Sea Fault Zone by including a 220,000-year-long continuous large earthquake record based on seismites from the Dead Sea center. We constrain seismic shaking intensities via computational fluid dynamics modeling and invert them for earthquake magnitude. Our analysis shows that the recurrence time of large earthquakes follows a power-law distribution, with a mean of 1400 ± 160 years. This mean recurrence is notable shorter than the previous estimate of 11,000 years for the past 40,000 years. Our unique record confirms a clustered earthquake recurrence pattern and a group-fault temporal clustering model, and reveals an unexpectedly high seismicity rate on a slow-slipping plate boundary.
大地震（震级≥7.0）很少见，尤其是在缓慢滑动的板块边界沿线。仪器记录中缺乏大地震，这增加了复发时间的不确定性；大地震的复发通常根据震级-频率关系通过外推法来确定。我们通过纳入基于死海中心地震岩的长达22万年的连续大地震记录，增强了死海断裂带的地震目录。我们通过计算流体动力学建模来约束地震震动强度，并将其反演以获得地震震级。我们的分析表明，大地震的复发时间遵循幂律分布，平均为1400±160年。这一平均复发时间明显短于过去4万年中先前估计的11000年。我们独特的记录证实了地震复发的聚类模式和群断层时间聚类模型，并揭示了缓慢滑动板块边界上出乎意料的高地震活动率。
