Environnement and Climate Change Canada, 2121 Trans-Canada, Dorval, H9P 1J3, Canada.
Department of Geography, Université de Montréal, 1375 Avenue Thérèse-Lavoie-Roux, Montréal, H2V 0B3, Canada.
Environ Res. 2021 Mar;194:110554. doi: 10.1016/j.envres.2020.110554. Epub 2020 Dec 3.
Simulating allergenic tree pollen is important to protect sensitive population and to support bioaerosols monitoring effort. Using the regional air quality model GEM-MACH, a simulation was conducted adopting two new main hypotheses: 1) the use of vertical correlation concept to force the vertical dispersion (a method normally used in tracer data assimilation) and, 2) the use of a puff instead of a continuous pollen release. The simulation was compared with pollen observations in Montreal and with the corresponding statistical forecasts (issued daily by the Weather Network) at several locations in the province of Quebec and elsewhere. The comparison with the simulation was found satisfactory (outperform forecasts based on persistence or pollen calendar and is also superior to numerical simulation of tree pollen done elsewhere in North America). Simulation shows that, for the 2012 pollen season, the majority (88%) of the Betula pollen measured in Montreal originated from the Laurentides region. Another result of scientific importance obtained here is that Betula pollen episodes (observed or simulated birch pollen) in Montreal occur only when the average daily temperature is in the range of 10° to 18 °C. This research is considered as a first step in forecasting bioaerosols in Canada within an air quality model.
模拟致敏性树木花粉对保护敏感人群和支持生物气溶胶监测工作非常重要。本研究采用区域空气质量模型 GEM-MACH 进行了一项模拟，提出了两个新的主要假设：1）使用垂直相关概念来强制垂直扩散（通常用于示踪剂数据同化的方法），2）使用烟团而不是连续花粉释放。该模拟与蒙特利尔的花粉观测以及魁北克省和其他地区的几个地点的气象网络发布的相应统计预测（每日发布）进行了比较。结果表明，与预测相比，该模拟表现良好（优于基于持久性或花粉日历的预测，也优于北美其他地区的树木花粉数值模拟）。模拟表明，对于 2012 年花粉季节，在蒙特利尔测量的大多数（88%）桦树花粉来自劳伦第亚地区。这里获得的另一个具有科学重要性的结果是，只有当平均日温度在 10°C 至 18°C 范围内时，蒙特利尔才会出现桦树花粉事件（观测到的或模拟的桦树花粉）。这项研究被认为是在空气质量模型中预测加拿大生物气溶胶的第一步。
